No · Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
$35,685 at 62.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 62.7¢ pays $159
99problems1230x0042…321e
Every $100 on their bets came back as $84.75 · 216 bets settled since Mar 25
Not verified yet — 20 of 30 settled bets
- 20 of 30 settled bets in the last 90 days
- Cautious estimate: $36.77 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (10 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 13:37 UTC.
Best at Tech · $100 → $93last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
Yes · Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
$8,076 at 30.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 30.1¢ pays $332Yes · Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$1,409 at 2.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 2.1¢ pays $4,651
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- No · Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?$6,042 at 23.2¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$332
- No · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$4,736 at 7¢ · Aug 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$25 at 0.54¢ · Aug 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$250 at 3.4¢ · Aug 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$32 at 0.3¢ · Aug 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?$242 at 42.8¢ · Aug 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$115 at 34.9¢ · Aug 1 · void · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$403 at 13.6¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$634
- No · Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$72 at 22¢ · Jul 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$8 at 10¢ · Jul 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$23 at 75.7¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$32
- Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$217 at 21.2¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1,478 at 13.8¢ · Jul 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$15 at 4.1¢ · Jul 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$4,974 at 46.2¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$116
- Yes · Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1 at 3.4¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$716 at 67.6¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$48
- Yes · Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$489 at 67¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$49
- Yes · Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$11,517 at 1.3¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$25,057 at 6.3¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$4 at 5¢ · Jul 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$4,557 at 40.5¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?$24 at 92.2¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- No · Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?$31 at 19¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?$351 at 73¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$37
- Yes · Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$420 at 14.1¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?$2,398 at 11.5¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$91 at 15.8¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$45 at 20.8¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5,974 at 0.51¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $46left out of every figure—
- No · Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$46 at 98.1¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$68 at 2.2¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$21 at 1.3¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$93 at 3.9¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$201 at 5.8¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$5,223 at 52.3¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$91
- Yes · US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?$1,713 at 73.6¢ · Jun 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$36
- No · US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$296 at 34.9¢ · Jun 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$2,811 at 73.4¢ · Jun 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$36
- No · US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$4,847 at 45.5¢ · Jun 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$16,199 at 72.5¢ · Jun 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$38
- No · US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$3,533 at 54.3¢ · Jun 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$47,706 at 56.1¢ · Jun 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$78
- Yes · US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$6,402 at 37.6¢ · Jun 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$166
- No · US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$162 at 17¢ · Jun 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$276 at 40.2¢ · Jun 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$222 at 83¢ · Jun 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$20
- No · Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?$970 at 5.9¢ · Jun 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?$186 at 82¢ · Jun 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$22
- No · Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$360 at 88.1¢ · Jun 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 216 settled bets.
31 more open bets
No · Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
$1,214 at 74.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74.3¢ pays $135Yes · Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?
$831 at 9.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 9.4¢ pays $1,065Yes · Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$448 at 1.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 1.8¢ pays $5,618Yes · Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$441 at 1.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 1.4¢ pays $6,993Yes · Anthropic IPO before 2027?
$439 at 66.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 66.5¢ pays $150Yes · Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$434 at 1.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 1.9¢ pays $5,291Yes · Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$426 at 3.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,205Yes · Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
$338 at 71.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71.1¢ pays $141No · Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
$130 at 51.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 51.8¢ pays $193No · Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
$124 at 14¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 14¢ pays $714No · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$82 at 5.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 5.4¢ pays $1,845No · Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?
$74 at 11.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 11.6¢ pays $863Yes · Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?
$37 at 0.21¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 0.21¢ pays $47,619Yes · Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
$22 at 5.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 5.9¢ pays $1,698No · Discord IPO before 2027?
$3 at 23.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 23.6¢ pays $424Yes · Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
$2 at 5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 5¢ pays $2,000
By topic · $100 →
- Other126 bets$99
- Tech27 bets$93
- Crypto23 bets$73
- Politics22 bets$53
- Economy10 bets$41
- Sports6 bets$0
- Culture1 bets$125
- Tennis1 bets$0
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$346,564 · unrealized −$1,801 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Not verified yet — 20 of 30 settled bets
- 20 of 30 settled bets in the last 90 days
- Cautious estimate: $36.77 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (10 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 13:37 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x00425c692a667981118f679ef68fdc775257321e · ← All whale receipts