No · 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
$24,289 at 92¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109
Folletin0x08c8…1da2
Every $100 on their bets came back as $100.47 · 370 bets settled since Oct 29
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 30 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $50.71 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (17 left out). Checked 2026-10-01 14:29 UTC.
Best at Crypto · $100 → $107last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
$15,100 at 77.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 77.3¢ pays $129No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$10,450 at 81.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 81.8¢ pays $122
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- Yes · Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$322 at 1.1¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$772 at 63¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Alexander Zverev · US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton$118 at 84¢ · Sep 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$19
- Yes · Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?$89 at 33¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?$163 at 7.2¢ · Sep 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United?$10 at 32.4¢ · Sep 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?$1,554 at 70.8¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$41
- No · Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$7,716 at 95.7¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$517 at 65.7¢ · Aug 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$52
- Yes · US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$595 at 62¢ · Aug 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?$202 at 70¢ · Aug 8 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$43
- Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$890 at 61¢ · Aug 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Trump signs housing bill by end of July?$10 at 56¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$1,789 at 91¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- No · Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$2,772 at 82¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$22
- Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$13,441 at 80¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$25
- Yes · Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$159 at 12.7¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$687
- Yes · Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?$40 at 10¢ · Jul 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$432 at 10.8¢ · Jul 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$58 at 2.9¢ · Jul 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$3,023 at 91¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$933 at 58¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?$132 at 51¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$96
- Yes · Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Spain?$35 at 6¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 Spain?$23 at 9¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Spain · Spread: Spain (-1.5)$56 at 28¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- England · Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance$122 at 54¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$85
- Yes · Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score$137 at 61¢ · Jul 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$64
- Yes · Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Morocco?$45 at 15¢ · Jul 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$1,725 at 85.2¢ · Jul 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- No · Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?$842 at 80.8¢ · Jul 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$24
- Yes · Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina?$15 at 3.5¢ · Jul 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?$607 at 78¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$28
- Yes · Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?$1,039 at 57.9¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$73
- Yes · Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?$3 at 10.9¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?$348 at 40.4¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$147
- No · Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$5,177 at 96¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- No · Epstein client list released by June 30?$11,374 at 79.9¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$25
- No · Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?$6,694 at 85.6¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- No · Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$2,351 at 78.3¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$28
- Mexico · Spread: Mexico (-1.5)$43 at 19¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$426
- Yes · Will France win on 2026-06-22?$818 at 91¢ · Jun 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- France · Spread: France (-2.5)$330 at 56¢ · Jun 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$79
- Yes · Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$1,800 at 71.2¢ · Jun 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$41
- Yes · Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?$709 at 64.9¢ · Jun 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$54
- Yes · Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?$5,136 at 93¢ · Jun 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- Yes · Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?$103 at 11¢ · Jun 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$56 at 39.4¢ · Jun 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?$12,606 at 93¢ · Jun 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- No · Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$1,676 at 73.5¢ · Jun 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$36
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 370 settled bets.
46 more open bets
Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
$9,360 at 63.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 63.4¢ pays $158No · Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
$7,882 at 74.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74.1¢ pays $135No · Iran leadership change by December 31?
$7,633 at 84.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.9¢ pays $118Yes · Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
$6,666 at 52.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 52.3¢ pays $191No · Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
$6,438 at 76.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 76.3¢ pays $131No · Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
$3,220 at 71.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71.4¢ pays $140Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
$2,442 at 35.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 35.9¢ pays $278Yes · Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
$1,778 at 49.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 49.8¢ pays $201Yes · Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$1,634 at 54.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 54.8¢ pays $182No · Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
$1,386 at 59.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 59.7¢ pays $168No · Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
$963 at 86¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86¢ pays $116Yes · Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
$683 at 68¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 68¢ pays $147No · Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?
$626 at 48.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 48.6¢ pays $206Yes · Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
$523 at 52¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 52¢ pays $192Yes · Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$455 at 6.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 6.4¢ pays $1,553Yes · Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
$433 at 15.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 15.8¢ pays $631Yes · Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
$430 at 43¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 43¢ pays $233Yes · Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$409 at 5.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 5.4¢ pays $1,842Yes · Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
$363 at 41.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 41.1¢ pays $243Yes · Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?
$361 at 8.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 8.1¢ pays $1,235Yes · Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
$318 at 13.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 13.6¢ pays $736Yes · Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$309 at 3.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.8¢ pays $2,611Yes · Will Manchester United qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?
$280 at 50¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50¢ pays $200Yes · Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
$216 at 7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 7¢ pays $1,418No · Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
$201 at 20¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 20¢ pays $500No · Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
$197 at 53¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 53¢ pays $189Yes · Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$194 at 1.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 1.4¢ pays $7,042Yes · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
$184 at 33¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 33¢ pays $303Yes · Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
$178 at 21.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 21.6¢ pays $463No · 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
$167 at 60.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 60.8¢ pays $165Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
$141 at 78.2¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 78.2¢ pays $128Yes · No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
$134 at 12.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 12.1¢ pays $825Yes · Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
$129 at 12.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 12.9¢ pays $776Yes · Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
$94 at 14¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 14¢ pays $715Yes · Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$75 at 2.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 2.5¢ pays $4,000No · Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
$68 at 49¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 49¢ pays $204Yes · Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
$66 at 1.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 1.7¢ pays $5,814Yes · Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?
$31 at 46.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 46.9¢ pays $213Yes · Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?
$21 at 25¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 25¢ pays $400Yes · Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$18 at 3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3¢ pays $3,333Yes · Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
$8 at 2.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 2.9¢ pays $3,448No · Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
$5 at 60¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 60¢ pays $167Yes · Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
$5 at 4.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 4.3¢ pays $2,326Yes · Will Fulham qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?
$3 at 7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 7¢ pays $1,429Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
$1 at 18.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 18.3¢ pays $545Yes · Will Anthropic not IPO before 2028?
$0 at 1.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 1.3¢ pays $7,692
By topic · $100 →
- Politics221 bets$96
- Other83 bets$102
- Crypto31 bets$107
- Soccer16 bets$143
- Tech6 bets$167
- Economy4 bets$72
- Culture3 bets$119
- Tennis3 bets$40
- Sports2 bets$0
- NHL1 bets$0
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$88,097 · unrealized +$9,361 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 30 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $50.71 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (17 left out). Checked 2026-10-01 14:29 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x08c897e4780c299061fe683120e5bb18cf931da2 · ← All whale receipts