Yes · Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
$10,837 at 92.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.5¢ pays $108
HerlihyM920x1970…398d
Every $100 on their bets came back as $111.45 · 274 bets settled since Dec 17
Not verified yet — 11 of 30 settled bets
- 11 of 30 settled bets in the last 90 days
- Cautious estimate: $97.49 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (33 left out). Checked 2026-10-01 14:29 UTC.
Best at Culture · $100 → $122last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
Yes · Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
$3,853 at 66.4¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 66.4¢ pays $151Yes · Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
$1,904 at 8.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 8.2¢ pays $1,220
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $92left out of every figure—
- No · Nick Fuentes and Sophie Rain confirmed relationship by September 30?$92 at 99.1¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?$147 at 49¢ · Sep 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$104
- Yes · Will “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series?$9 at 4.5¢ · Sep 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Tampa Bay Rays clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?$50 at 45¢ · Sep 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$122
- No · Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?$277 at 94.4¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?$70 at 91.5¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- Yes · Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$134 at 95¢ · Aug 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000?$49 at 31.9¢ · Aug 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$55 at 26.7¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$274
- No · Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8 at 83.7¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2 at 16.4¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$510
- No · Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$9 at 80¢ · Jul 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$25
- No · No one announced as next James Bond?$23 at 37¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · No one announced as next James Bond?$123 at 62.4¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$60
- No · LIV Golf merger/acquisition announced by June 30?$7 at 68¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$47
- No · No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?$56 at 94¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- No · Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$663 at 90¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- Yes · Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$5 at 18¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?$37 at 87.7¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- Yes · Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$9 at 1.9¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$73 at 28.4¢ · Jun 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$253
- No · Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0 at 94¢ · Jun 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $6,618left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Neymar play in the World Cup?$6,618 at 99.9¢ · Jun 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?$96 at 55¢ · Jun 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$82
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $1,181left out of every figure—
- No · Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?$1,181 at 98.5¢ · Jun 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$70 at 35¢ · Jun 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$266 at 49.7¢ · Jun 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$101
- Yes · Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%?$2 at 24¢ · Jun 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$64 at 18¢ · Jun 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$45 at 92.9¢ · Jun 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- No · Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?$941 at 88.2¢ · Jun 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
- Yes · Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$48 at 20¢ · May 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?$56 at 14¢ · May 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$614
- Yes · Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$71 at 67.8¢ · May 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$178 at 83.8¢ · May 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$19
- Yes · Will Bulgaria win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$632 at 18.4¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$442
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $5left out of every figure—
- No · Will Serbia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$5 at 99.7¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$23 at 36¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?$72 at 79.6¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$26
- Yes · Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?$372 at 17.7¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?$0 at 7¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?$7,131 at 67.9¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$47
- Yes · Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?$64 at 31.9¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will France win Eurovision 2026?$386 at 7¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?$245 at 17.3¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?$37 at 4.6¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?$16 at 1.4¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?$8 at 2.1¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?$161 at 13.4¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?$0 at 1.2¢ · May 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 274 settled bets.
39 more open bets
No · Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
$1,179 at 31¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 31¢ pays $322Yes · Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?
$948 at 79¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79¢ pays $127No · Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?
$844 at 78.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 78.8¢ pays $127Yes · Will Sligo Rovers be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division?
$838 at 95.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.2¢ pays $105No · Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
$792 at 66¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 66¢ pays $152No · Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
$790 at 79¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79¢ pays $127Yes · Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
$732 at 69.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 69.7¢ pays $143No · U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$704 at 88¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88¢ pays $114Yes · Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
$668 at 47.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 47.7¢ pays $209Yes · Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
$642 at 37.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 37.6¢ pays $266No · X banned in any European country by December 31?
$447 at 76.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 76.8¢ pays $130Yes · Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
$399 at 54.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 54.8¢ pays $182Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
$320 at 40¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 40¢ pays $250Yes · Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
$307 at 21.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 21.9¢ pays $456Yes · Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$231 at 2.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 2.1¢ pays $4,762No · Manchester City punishment announced by October 23?
$225 at 88.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.6¢ pays $113No · Manchester City punishment announced by October 9?
$202 at 92.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.5¢ pays $108Yes · Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$176 at 0.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 0.8¢ pays $12,500Yes · Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
$166 at 3.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.3¢ pays $3,021No · Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$156 at 78¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 78¢ pays $128Yes · Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$139 at 1.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 1.8¢ pays $5,405Yes · Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
$120 at 6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 6¢ pays $1,672No · US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
$117 at 78¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 78¢ pays $128No · Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
$98 at 82¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82¢ pays $122Yes · Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
$95 at 21¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 21¢ pays $476No · Manchester City punishment announced by December 18?
$85 at 47.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 47.3¢ pays $211Yes · Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
$75 at 3.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,185Yes · Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
$63 at 2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 2¢ pays $4,975No · Manchester City punishment announced by December 4?
$57 at 57¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 57¢ pays $175Yes · Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?
$52 at 13¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 13¢ pays $770Yes · Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
$34 at 15¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 15¢ pays $667Yes · Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$28 at 1.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 1.4¢ pays $7,143No · Will Waterford be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division?
$9 at 46¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 46¢ pays $217Yes · Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?
$5 at 66¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 66¢ pays $152Yes · Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?
$4 at 74.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74.8¢ pays $134No · Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?
$2 at 75¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 75¢ pays $133No · Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027?
$2 at 20¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 20¢ pays $500No · Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
$1 at 92.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.8¢ pays $108Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
$0 at 48¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 48¢ pays $208
By topic · $100 →
- Politics122 bets$99
- Other72 bets$113
- Culture40 bets$122
- Sports23 bets$95
- Soccer8 bets$197
- NBA3 bets$313
- Economy2 bets$160
- Golf2 bets$68
- Crypto1 bets$208
- Tech1 bets$118
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$40,747 · unrealized +$611 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Not verified yet — 11 of 30 settled bets
- 11 of 30 settled bets in the last 90 days
- Cautious estimate: $97.49 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (33 left out). Checked 2026-10-01 14:29 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x197040709ae61627d3685a8d6ce1f9e82e6b398d · ← All whale receipts