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flawfence0x23d8…0288

Every $100 on their bets came back as $136.81 · 253 bets settled since May 10

Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
  • 183 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
  • Cautious estimate: $95.22 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
  • Active today — within the last 14 days

Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (15 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 13:37 UTC.

$100 on each bet, net · cumulative$5,000$10,000break-evenMayJunJulAugSep 25+$9,312$100 on each bet, net · cumulative$5,000$10,000break-evenMayJunJulAugSep 25+$9,312
Best at Politics · $100 → $159last 10

Open bets you can still get in on

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Track record

Settled bets · newest first$100 result
  • No · Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$3,008 at 71.2¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗+$41
  • Yes · Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$6,182 at 26.7¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$854 at 77.2¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$4,265 at 61¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗+$64
  • No · Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$13,077 at 72.8¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗+$37
  • Yes · Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$3,566 at 29.4¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$32,549 at 89.3¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗+$12
  • No · Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$20,709 at 95¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗+$5
  • Yes · Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$120 at 13¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will New People (NL) win the fourth-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$933 at 50¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will New People (NL) win the fourth-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$41 at 32.8¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗+$205
  • Yes · Will the Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?$15 at 5.1¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?$13,419 at 89¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗+$12
  • Yes · Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$6,154 at 49.2¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗+$103
  • Yes · Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$4,258 at 50¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$2 at 22¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗+$355
  • Yes · Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$504 at 11¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will United Russia win the next Omsk Oblast Parliament elections?$1,848 at 94¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗+$6
  • Yes · Will New People (NL) win between 35 and 44 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$93 at 10.1¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$40 at 8.9¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?$248 at 21.7¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will SPD win at least 31% of all valid second votes?$4,808 at 73¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗+$37
  • Yes · Will AfD win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?$299 at 24.9¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗+$302
  • Yes · Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$2,042 at 59.7¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will AfD win 24-27 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$309 at 11.1¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$3,290 at 56.3¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗+$78
  • Yes · Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$5,437 at 38.8¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$13,757 at 75.9¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗+$32
  • Yes · Will Linke win at least 23% of all valid second votes?$109 at 13.9¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗+$618
  • No · Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$718 at 12¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$335 at 5.8¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$35,547 at 37.9¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$67,264 at 93¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗+$8
  • 1 bet at 97¢ or more · $71,632left out of every figure—
    • No · Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$71,632 at 98.3¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗+$2
  • Yes · Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3,702 at 19.1¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$4,378 at 4.9¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • 1 bet at 97¢ or more · $136,247left out of every figure—
    • Yes · Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$136,247 at 98.4¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗+$2
  • Yes · Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$3,538 at 46.8¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗+$114
  • Yes · Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$323 at 23.4¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$2,376 at 82¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗+$22
  • Yes · Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$4,320 at 21.4¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$9,115 at 36.2¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?$182 at 97¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗+$3
  • No · Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?$377 at 93.2¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗+$7
  • Yes · Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?$0 at 15¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗+$567
  • No · Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$129 at 10.8¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will the Green Party (MP) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$38 at 10¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win less than 16% of all valid votes?$1 at 1.3¢ · Sep 18 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?$4,797 at 95.8¢ · Sep 18 · tx ↗+$4
  • No · Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$7 at 23¢ · Sep 17 · tx ↗+$335

The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 253 settled bets.

47 more open bets

By topic · $100 →

  • Politics147 bets$159
  • Other60 bets$101
  • Soccer25 bets$134
  • Sports10 bets$108
  • Crypto4 bets$109
  • MLB2 bets$89
  • Tennis2 bets$67
  • Weather2 bets$0
  • Economy1 bets$0
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$3,234,124 · unrealized −$638 · profile ↗
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.

Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100

  • 183 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
  • Cautious estimate: $95.22 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
  • Active today — within the last 14 days

Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (15 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 13:37 UTC.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts

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Fine print

Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x23d81ba9371e576015c1e562db09c689f56b0288 · ← All whale receipts

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