No · Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
$158,973 at 70¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 70¢ pays $143
657657570x2974…9c23
Every $100 on their bets came back as $109.48 · 132 bets settled since Jul 23
Why verified
- 132 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $100.14 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 3 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (9 left out). Checked 2026-10-16 12:05 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $114last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
Yes · Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
$132,402 at 53.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 53.1¢ pays $188No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
$70,550 at 80.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 80.4¢ pays $124
Watch in this browserWatch in Telegram (opens in a new tab)
Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- No · Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?$841 at 17.7¢ · Oct 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$466
- Yes · Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?$1,031 at 84¢ · Oct 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?$6,549 at 70.3¢ · Oct 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$42
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?$95 at 95¢ · Oct 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Will Marcel Van Hattem win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?$210 at 74.7¢ · Oct 8 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$7,889 at 88.1¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- Yes · Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?$826 at 84.3¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$19
- Bolsonaro · Lula or Bolsonaro favored on October 5?$5,224 at 83.4¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$20
- Yes · Will André do Prado win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?$178 at 61.6¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$62
- No · Will Simone Tebet win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?$1,090 at 86¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- No · Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?$1,019 at 88.8¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
- No · Will Aécio Neves win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?$931 at 88.4¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
- No · Will Esperidião Amin win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?$178 at 72.7¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$38
- Yes · Will Rayssa Furlan win the most votes in the 2026 Amapá Senate election?$89 at 87¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
- Yes · Will Carlos Jordy win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?$65 at 30.4¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$229
- No · Will Simone Tebet win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?$1,657 at 89.7¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$12
- No · Will Esperidião Amin win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?$535 at 91.1¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- Yes · Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?$3,201 at 81.4¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$23
- No · Will Leila do Vôlei win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?$1,877 at 81.5¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$23
- No · Will Aécio Neves win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?$32 at 88¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- Yes · Will Mara Rocha win the second-most votes in the 2026 Acre Senate election?$114 at 36.8¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$172
- Yes · Will Marina JHC win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election?$66 at 53¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$89
- Yes · Will Mara Rocha win the most votes in the 2026 Acre Senate election?$100 at 31.1¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Jaques Wagner win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?$2,644 at 80.1¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$25
- Yes · Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?$3,555 at 88.2¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
- Yes · Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?$3,584 at 91.2¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- Yes · Will Carlos Jordy win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?$100 at 30.1¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?$47 at 56.1¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$78
- Yes · Will Lucas Ribeiro win the Governor of Paraíba election?$178 at 85.6¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- Yes · Will Marina JHC win the most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election?$57 at 41.6¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?$622 at 59.4¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$68
- No · Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?$717 at 57.2¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?$9,057 at 59.9¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$67
- Yes · Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?$1,900 at 53.6¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?$1,198 at 50.2¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$99
- Yes · Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?$2,702 at 55¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?$9,379 at 60.2¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$66
- Yes · Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?$301 at 86.4¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- Yes · Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?$159 at 80.4¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$24
- Yes · Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?$431 at 94¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Espírito Santo?$854 at 89.5¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$12
- Yes · Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?$599 at 87.7¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- No · Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?$661 at 60.9¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$64
- Yes · Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?$311 at 59.3¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$69
- Yes · Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?$4,797 at 90.8¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- Yes · Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$455 at 35.1¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$185
- No · Will Manuela D'Ávila win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?$1,101 at 87.9¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- Yes · Will Lula win between 41% and 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$61 at 36.9¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$95 at 47.7¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$110
- No · Will Manuela D'Ávila win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?$187 at 80.4¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$24
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 132 settled bets.
11 more open bets
Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$48,600 at 84.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.8¢ pays $118Yes · US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?
$3,649 at 87¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87¢ pays $115No · Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?
$3,629 at 79.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79.3¢ pays $126No · Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?
$2,885 at 95¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95¢ pays $105No · Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?
$2,000 at 89¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89¢ pays $112Yes · Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
$892 at 84¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84¢ pays $119No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
$606 at 93¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93¢ pays $108Yes · Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
$74 at 89.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89.7¢ pays $112No · Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?
$34 at 85¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85¢ pays $118Yes · US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 18?
$11 at 95.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.5¢ pays $105No · Will Leandro Grass win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial second round?
$6 at 87¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87¢ pays $115
By topic · $100 →
- Politics111 bets$114
- Other21 bets$87
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$458,061 · unrealized +$89,296 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 132 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $100.14 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 3 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (9 left out). Checked 2026-10-16 12:05 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23 · ← All whale receipts