No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$14,289 at 84¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84¢ pays $119
aviato0x2a01…6397
Every $100 on their bets came back as $92.62 · 147 bets settled since Mar 1
Why verified
- 36 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $101.83 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 2 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (321 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC.
Best at MMA · $100 → $98last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$13,948 at 93¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93¢ pays $108Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
$11,601 at 23.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 23.9¢ pays $418
Watch in this browserWatch in Telegram (opens in a new tab)
Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
3 bets at 97¢ or more · $18,180left out of every figure—
- No · Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?$149 at 99.2¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?$13,831 at 97.6¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$4,200 at 99.9¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?$954 at 92.4¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $22,862left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$22,862 at 99.3¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$2,835 at 94.5¢ · Oct 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$5,965 at 94¢ · Oct 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $8,950left out of every figure—
- No · Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$4,950 at 99¢ · Oct 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$4,000 at 99.8¢ · Oct 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?$643 at 90.6¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $3,430left out of every figure—
- No · Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 18m?$3,430 at 99¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 16m?$1,773 at 95.6¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $9,990left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?$9,990 at 99.9¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$4,998 at 93.9¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$4,046 at 95.6¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $2,269left out of every figure—
- No · Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?$1,523 at 99.8¢ · Oct 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 45m?$747 at 99.7¢ · Oct 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will "You Can See Everything" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 7m?$81 at 96¢ · Oct 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- Yes · Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 94 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$4,175 at 97¢ · Oct 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- Yes · Fight to Go the Distance?$238 at 82¢ · Oct 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$22
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $9,992left out of every figure—
- Yes · Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 19?$9,992 at 99.9¢ · Oct 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 33m?$195 at 85¢ · Oct 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
4 bets at 97¢ or more · $26,809left out of every figure—
- No · Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?$568 at 98¢ · Oct 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$3,526 at 99.9¢ · Oct 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$3,845 at 99.8¢ · Oct 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$18,870 at 99.9¢ · Oct 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?$1,032 at 79.1¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$26
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $501left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?$501 at 99.6¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?$117 at 81.2¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$23
- Yes · Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 28m?$1,738 at 96.6¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- Yes · Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?$168 at 84¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$19
13 bets at 97¢ or more · $2,572left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?$18 at 98¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Over · O/U 2.5 Rounds$83 at 99.9¢ · Oct 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will the fight end before Round 2?$99 at 99¢ · Oct 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Will Payton Talbott win by KO or TKO?$69 at 99¢ · Oct 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Over · O/U 0.5 Rounds$51 at 99.9¢ · Oct 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Roberto Soldic · UFC 332: Roberto Soldic vs. Khaos Williams (Welterweight, Main Card)$1,050 at 98.6¢ · Oct 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Will the fight end before Round 3?$99 at 99¢ · Oct 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Will Roman Kopylov win by KO or TKO?$52 at 99.9¢ · Oct 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will the fight end before Round 2?$151 at 98.7¢ · Oct 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?$99 at 99¢ · Oct 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will Ateba Gautier win in Round 1?$131 at 99¢ · Oct 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will the fight end in a decision or draw?$63 at 98.1¢ · Oct 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?$607 at 97.9¢ · Oct 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$465 at 93¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- No · Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?$1,446 at 93.9¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $18,105left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$17,409 at 97.3¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$696 at 99.6¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?$1,891 at 92.9¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $2,909left out of every figure—
- No · Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the September 2026 meeting?$2,909 at 98¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 147 settled bets.
46 more open bets
Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
$11,246 at 23.4¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 23.4¢ pays $427Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: Other
$10,647 at 23.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 23.7¢ pays $423No · Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
$10,109 at 83.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 83.9¢ pays $119No · Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?
$7,280 at 94.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.2¢ pays $106No · Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?
$7,000 at 92.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.6¢ pays $108No · Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
$4,673 at 83.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 83.6¢ pays $120No · Will Daniel Craig be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
$3,715 at 93¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93¢ pays $108No · Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
$2,680 at 91.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.7¢ pays $109No · Will Robert Aramayo be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
$2,039 at 93.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.6¢ pays $107No · Will Adam Scott be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
$1,880 at 94.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.3¢ pays $106No · Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
$1,871 at 87¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87¢ pays $115No · Will Kayleigh McEnany be the next White House Press Secretary?
$1,745 at 95.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.4¢ pays $105No · Will "Toy Story 5" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?
$1,455 at 89.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89.3¢ pays $112No · Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?
$1,450 at 91.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.7¢ pays $109Yes · Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
$1,386 at 92¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109Yes · Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
$1,378 at 68¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 68¢ pays $147No · Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?
$1,300 at 92.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.1¢ pays $109No · Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?
$1,249 at 95.4¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.4¢ pays $105No · Will Palmer Luckey attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
$1,234 at 95¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95¢ pays $105No · Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
$1,200 at 88.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.3¢ pays $113No · Will "Cry to Heaven" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?
$1,150 at 91.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.3¢ pays $110No · Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?
$1,060 at 93.2¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.2¢ pays $107No · Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
$1,053 at 92.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.6¢ pays $108No · Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?
$1,049 at 95.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.9¢ pays $104No · Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?
$1,033 at 93.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.9¢ pays $107No · Will "The Social Reckoning" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?
$1,018 at 92¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109No · Will Reve have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?
$1,000 at 84.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.5¢ pays $118No · Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
$1,000 at 91.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.3¢ pays $110No · Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
$1,000 at 94.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.6¢ pays $106No · Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
$1,000 at 93.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.7¢ pays $107No · Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
$991 at 93.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.3¢ pays $107No · Will Amcha Yisrael be in the next Israeli government?
$953 at 95.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.3¢ pays $105No · Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary?
$922 at 93.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.3¢ pays $107No · Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
$920 at 92¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109No · Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
$906 at 90.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.6¢ pays $110No · Will Joan Collins be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
$873 at 92.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.3¢ pays $108Yes · Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
$870 at 87¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87¢ pays $115No · Will Emily Blunt be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
$855 at 85.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85.2¢ pays $117No · Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
$850 at 85¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85¢ pays $118No · Will "Forgotten Island" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?
$813 at 94.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.5¢ pays $106No · Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2028?
$754 at 94¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94¢ pays $106No · Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?
$725 at 92.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.1¢ pays $109No · Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?
$720 at 92.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.3¢ pays $108No · Will Daisy Edgar-Jones be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
$701 at 91.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.5¢ pays $109No · Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
$697 at 96.2¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.2¢ pays $104No · Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027?
$687 at 94.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.6¢ pays $106
By topic · $100 →
- Culture59 bets$89
- Politics41 bets$92
- MMA24 bets$98
- Tech9 bets$83
- Other7 bets$107
- Soccer3 bets$109
- Economy2 bets$106
- Esports2 bets$105
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$285,888 · unrealized +$6,280 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 36 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $101.83 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 2 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (321 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397 · ← All whale receipts