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seal70x2b9d…adc0

Every $100 on their bets came back as $98.85 · 376 bets settled since Feb 6

Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
  • 117 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
  • Cautious estimate: $80.79 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
  • Active today — within the last 14 days

Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (14 left out). Checked 2026-10-03 22:00 UTC.

$100 on each bet, net · cumulative−$3,000−$2,000−$1,000$1,000break-evenFebAprMayJunJulAugOct 1−$431$100 on each bet, net · cumulative−$3,000−$2,000−$1,000$1,000break-evenFebAprJunAugOct 1−$431
Best at Tech · $100 → $124last 10

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Track record

Settled bets · newest first$100 result
  • Yes · Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?$2,011 at 30.9¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?$666 at 45.4¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$998 at 10¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$7 at 2.4¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$598 at 31¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗+$223
  • Yes · Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$870 at 10¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will United Russia win the next Kaliningrad Oblast Parliament elections?$573 at 85.4¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗+$17
  • No · Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$172 at 13.4¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$10,278 at 60¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗+$67
  • Yes · Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$2,515 at 5.8¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$232 at 14.2¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$1,503 at 19.7¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$525 at 21.1¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$523 at 71.6¢ · Sep 17 · tx ↗+$40
  • Yes · Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$482 at 39¢ · Sep 17 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$349 at 71.7¢ · Sep 17 · tx ↗+$39
  • No · Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$1,673 at 22.1¢ · Sep 17 · tx ↗+$353
  • SPD · Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?$30 at 86¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗+$16
  • Yes · Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?$854 at 65.9¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗+$52
  • Yes · Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$647 at 29.7¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?$426 at 66.7¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗+$50
  • Yes · Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?$2,226 at 27.9¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?$3,565 at 43.6¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗+$130
  • No · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$736 at 6¢ · Aug 31 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will Tukaka George Tamarua Ama win the Ngatangiia constituency in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?$76 at 5.4¢ · Aug 29 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by at least 25%?$3,295 at 33¢ · Aug 27 · tx ↗+$203
  • Yes · Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 20–25%?$39 at 16.1¢ · Aug 27 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$1,708 at 52.6¢ · Aug 27 · tx ↗+$90
  • Yes · Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$3,121 at 36.8¢ · Aug 27 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by at least 16%?$5 at 13.1¢ · Aug 26 · tx ↗+$665
  • No · Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%?$145 at 65.9¢ · Aug 26 · tx ↗+$52
  • No · Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 25–30%?$268 at 59.5¢ · Aug 26 · tx ↗+$68
  • Yes · Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?$309 at 38.5¢ · Aug 26 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$254 at 30¢ · Aug 26 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$3,266 at 64.4¢ · Aug 26 · tx ↗+$55
  • Yes · Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$1,186 at 29.8¢ · Aug 26 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will Donavan McKinney win the MI-13 Democratic primary by at least 16%?$37 at 10¢ · Aug 25 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will Donavan McKinney win the MI-13 Democratic primary by 12–16%?$968 at 62.7¢ · Aug 25 · tx ↗+$59
  • Yes · Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?$620 at 15¢ · Aug 25 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?$45 at 10.4¢ · Aug 25 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?$1,126 at 93.9¢ · Aug 21 · tx ↗+$6
  • No · Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$1,727 at 28.4¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$55 at 91.5¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗+$9
  • Yes · Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$1,770 at 56.8¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗+$76
  • Yes · Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$2,189 at 26.4¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?$717 at 29.5¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?$878 at 23.7¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗−$100
  • Yes · Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?$4,665 at 76.7¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗+$30
  • Yes · Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?$611 at 24.2¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗−$100
  • No · Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?$264 at 20.2¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗−$100

The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 376 settled bets.

32 more open bets

By topic · $100 →

  • Politics294 bets$101
  • Other28 bets$75
  • Tech28 bets$124
  • Culture7 bets$62
  • Crypto5 bets$133
  • Sports4 bets$29
  • Economy3 bets$37
  • MLB3 bets$98
  • NFL3 bets$97
  • Soccer1 bets$0
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$120,034 · unrealized +$5,876 · profile ↗
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.

Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100

  • 117 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
  • Cautious estimate: $80.79 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
  • Active today — within the last 14 days

Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (14 left out). Checked 2026-10-03 22:00 UTC.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x2b9dbf4b6e0e11309a9d6d2a09b72f65f652adc0 · ← All whale receipts

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