Yes · Trump meets with Putin by December 31?
$296 at 73.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 73.8¢ pays $135
fillit980x2f63…6643
Every $100 on their bets came back as $136.29 · 454 bets settled since Mar 31
Why verified
- 196 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $137.22 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (101 left out). Checked 2026-10-02 13:56 UTC.
Best at Economy · $100 → $148last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
Yes · Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?
$251 at 79¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79¢ pays $127Yes · Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?
$251 at 79¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79¢ pays $127
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$61 at 7.6¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?$87 at 95.2¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?$58 at 87.5¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- Yes · Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?$50 at 88.5¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $194left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will FactSet (FDS) beat quarterly earnings?$194 at 97.6¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Trump renames AI by September 30?$6 at 85¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
- Yes · Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.0M and 7.1M in August?$33 at 73.9¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$35
- No · Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 7.0M in August?$0 at 91.4¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- Yes · Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 21-September 27?$84 at 77.8¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$29
- Yes · Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?$122 at 65.9¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$52
- No · Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?$61 at 74.1¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$35
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $145left out of every figure—
- No · Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be less than 0.0%?$145 at 98¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?$77 at 74.6¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$34
- Yes · Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings?$498 at 88.1¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
- Yes · Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?$3 at 4.3¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2,236
- Yes · US x China tariff agreement by September 30?$498 at 85.1¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- Yes · Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in September?$77 at 96.4¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $67left out of every figure—
- No · Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in September?$67 at 97.4¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- Yes · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?$519 at 91.4¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- Yes · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?$1,178 at 90.4¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- Yes · Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings?$44 at 88.6¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
- Yes · Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?$42 at 63.1¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$58
- No · Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?$10 at 62¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$61
- Yes · Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?$138 at 54.4¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$84
- No · Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?$184 at 89.9¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- No · Will Cintas (CTAS) beat quarterly earnings?$420 at 79.6¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$26
- Yes · Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?$10 at 4.9¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1,959
- Yes · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$164 at 16.2¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$517
- Yes · Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?$344 at 85.9¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- Yes · Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?$774 at 85.8¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- Yes · Will AutoZone (AZO) beat quarterly earnings?$416 at 89.6¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$12
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $239left out of every figure—
- Yes · No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?$239 at 97.8¢ · Sep 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$13,068 at 62.3¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$60
- No · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$13,000 at 63.8¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$57
- No · Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?$363 at 86.9¢ · Sep 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
- Yes · Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?$153 at 62.2¢ · Sep 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$61
- Yes · Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?$195 at 66.5¢ · Sep 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$50
- No · Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?$23 at 91¢ · Sep 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- Yes · Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?$379 at 86.5¢ · Sep 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- No · Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?$81 at 85.7¢ · Sep 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
3 bets at 97¢ or more · $632left out of every figure—
- No · Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?$219 at 97.9¢ · Sep 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in August?$183 at 98¢ · Sep 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?$229 at 98¢ · Sep 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?$992 at 96.9¢ · Sep 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- Yes · Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August?$324 at 94.4¢ · Sep 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?$87 at 74.2¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?$710 at 89.5¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$12
- Yes · Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?$84 at 72.3¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$38
- No · Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?$41 at 76.8¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$30
- Yes · Will Academy Sports (ASO) beat quarterly earnings?$154 at 57.4¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$74
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 454 settled bets.
4 more open bets
Yes · Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
$83 at 5.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 5.5¢ pays $1,805Yes · Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
$40 at 16.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 16.7¢ pays $597No · NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
$34 at 68¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 68¢ pays $147Yes · Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
$26 at 52¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 52¢ pays $192
By topic · $100 →
- Other219 bets$139
- Politics128 bets$130
- Economy65 bets$148
- Tech25 bets$116
- Soccer12 bets$156
- Sports3 bets$120
- Weather2 bets$55
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$80,005 · unrealized −$178 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 196 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $137.22 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (101 left out). Checked 2026-10-02 13:56 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x2f633efb75256a2f2445110c8978684ab8936643 · ← All whale receipts