Yes · Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
$10,000 at 50¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50¢ pays $200
moonlight20200x407d…1bae
Every $100 on their bets came back as $126.07 · 152 bets settled since Apr 5
Why verified
- 58 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $122.82 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (21 left out). Checked 2026-10-18 14:34 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $127last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
$10,000 at 50¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50¢ pays $200No · Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
$4,650 at 93¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93¢ pays $108
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- No · Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?$7 at 46¢ · Oct 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$117
- No · Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?$536 at 67¢ · Oct 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?$728 at 69.5¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$44
- No · Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?$272 at 93¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- Yes · Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?$233 at 17.9¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$270 at 9¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1,011
- Yes · Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3,850 at 77¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$30
- No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?$9 at 40¢ · Sep 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$2,600 at 13¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Lacy and Marlon have between 10 and 11 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?$134 at 90.4¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- No · Will Lacy and Marlon have 16 or more Minecraft deaths during the marathon?$390 at 86¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- Yes · Will Lacy and Marlon have between 2 and 3 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?$158 at 38¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?$42 at 21¢ · Sep 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?$486 at 93.9¢ · Sep 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?$535 at 25.8¢ · Sep 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Lacy or Marlon die to a skeleton?$110 at 40¢ · Sep 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Over $3M committed to the Ethos public sale?$258 at 95.9¢ · Sep 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- No · Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?$749 at 93.7¢ · Sep 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$7
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $709left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Lacy or Marlon die to a creeper?$709 at 98.5¢ · Sep 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 2, 2026?$96 at 96¢ · Sep 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- Yes · Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?$1,653 at 79¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$27
- No · Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?$3,505 at 79.6¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$26
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$5,115 at 64.4¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$55
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $2,997left out of every figure—
- No · Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?$2,997 at 99.9¢ · Aug 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?$2,435 at 76.1¢ · Aug 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?$750 at 25¢ · Aug 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$300
- No · Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 10 million views on day 1?$1,067 at 73.8¢ · Aug 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 36 hours?$275 at 87.9¢ · Aug 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$6,176 at 88.7¢ · Aug 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
- No · Will Kai and Speed have 90 or more total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?$112 at 95.8¢ · Aug 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- Yes · Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?$348 at 94.4¢ · Aug 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?$26 at 12.7¢ · Aug 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$684
- Yes · Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?$268 at 29¢ · Aug 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$245
- Yes · Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?$456 at 20.9¢ · Aug 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$380
- No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$4,646 at 38.3¢ · Aug 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$384 at 38.1¢ · Aug 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$676 at 21¢ · Aug 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$376
- No · Over $5M committed to the Ryvo public sale?$41 at 63.2¢ · Aug 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$58
- No · Over $8M committed to the Ryvo public sale?$6 at 81¢ · Aug 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$23
- No · Over $3M committed to the Ryvo public sale?$119 at 54¢ · Aug 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$85
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$1,679 at 67.5¢ · Aug 8 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$48
- Yes · Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$1,597 at 87¢ · Aug 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
- No · Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?$815 at 31.1¢ · Aug 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$222
- Yes · U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$3,388 at 84.7¢ · Aug 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $2,719left out of every figure—
- No · Iran leadership change by July 31?$2,719 at 99.4¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$612 at 23.9¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$13,482 at 91.4¢ · Jul 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1,211 at 78¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$28
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$2,250 at 75¢ · Jul 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$33
- Yes · Zelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$490 at 48¢ · Jul 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$108
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 152 settled bets.
21 more open bets
No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$4,020 at 80.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 80.4¢ pays $124No · Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?
$2,936 at 80.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 80.4¢ pays $124Yes · Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
$2,003 at 65.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 65.6¢ pays $153Yes · Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
$1,661 at 16.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 16.6¢ pays $602Yes · Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$1,479 at 14.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 14.8¢ pays $676Yes · Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
$1,088 at 77.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 77.1¢ pays $130Yes · Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
$1,029 at 34.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 34.3¢ pays $292No · Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?
$1,020 at 21¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 21¢ pays $475No · Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?
$925 at 15.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 15.4¢ pays $649No · Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?
$811 at 27¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 27¢ pays $371No · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
$687 at 63¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 63¢ pays $159No · Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
$445 at 89¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89¢ pays $112No · Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
$410 at 71¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71¢ pays $141No · Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?
$286 at 14.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 14.3¢ pays $699Yes · Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
$255 at 2.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 2.5¢ pays $3,922Yes · Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
$74 at 74¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74¢ pays $135No · Will STRC hit $100 by November 30?
$66 at 6.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 6.6¢ pays $1,520Yes · Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31?
$35 at 9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 9¢ pays $1,111Yes · Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?
$15 at 38.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 38.5¢ pays $260Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
$1 at 60¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 60¢ pays $167Yes · Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?
$1 at 61¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 61¢ pays $164
By topic · $100 →
- Politics83 bets$127
- Crypto16 bets$135
- Other15 bets$122
- Culture10 bets$219
- Soccer10 bets$96
- Tech9 bets$101
- Esports8 bets$55
- Sports1 bets$106
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$42,801 · unrealized +$2,365 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 58 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $122.82 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (21 left out). Checked 2026-10-18 14:34 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x407dd149f1e92c91d0053e0240e03318a1e01bae · ← All whale receipts