No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$7,799 at 78¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 78¢ pays $128
TradeDeficitArchitect0x477f…19aa
Every $100 on their bets came back as $101.64 · 307 bets settled since Feb 10
Why verified
- 39 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $100.83 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 6 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (99 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 23:05 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $111last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
$4,802 at 68.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 68.4¢ pays $146Yes · Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
$4,800 at 24¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 24¢ pays $417
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat?$40 at 40¢ · Nov 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$150
- Yes · Will Republicans win the Mississippi Senate seat, Democrats win South Carolina, and an independent win Montana?$2 at 2.9¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Republicans win the Mississippi and South Carolina Senate seats, and an independent win Montana?$3 at 1.9¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$18 at 36¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$178
- No · 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House$12,600 at 84¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$19
- Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: Other$1 at 0.4¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?$55 at 69¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$45
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026?$13 at 12.7¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$804 at 58¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?$6 at 73¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$37
- No · Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?$565 at 45¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$122
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?$93 at 49.9¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$101
- No · Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?$76 at 53.4¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$87
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$725 at 84¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$19
- No · Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?$2,000 at 45¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$122
- Yes · Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?$243 at 81¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?$3 at 27.3¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$266
- No · Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?$1,046 at 61¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$64
- No · Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?$4 at 42¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$138
- Yes · Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?$611 at 69.5¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?$34 at 62¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?$78 at 78¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$28
- No · Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?$1,051 at 91.5¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- Yes · Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?$104 at 49¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?$154 at 89¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?$317 at 47¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$113
- Yes · Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?$75 at 90¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- No · Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?$4,308 at 92¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $347left out of every figure—
- No · Will Ezra Frech be eliminated in week 8 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?$347 at 98.6¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?$350 at 21¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?$4,600 at 43.5¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$130
- No · Will Jackson Olson be eliminated in week 4 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?$70 at 50¢ · Oct 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$100
- Yes · Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by at least 25%?$50 at 84¢ · Aug 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$19
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $18left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Byron Donalds win at least 40% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$18 at 97¢ · Aug 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · Will Byron Donalds win at least 50% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$11 at 22¢ · Aug 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$355
- No · Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$31 at 88¢ · Aug 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- Yes · Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$143 at 79.4¢ · Aug 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $1,231left out of every figure—
- No · Will James Fishback at least 30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$1,231 at 99.7¢ · Aug 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will James Fishback win 15–20% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$31 at 95¢ · Aug 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$15 at 34.9¢ · Aug 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $100left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Jared Moskowitz be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?$100 at 98¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?$86 at 83¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$20
- No · Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$264 at 58.8¢ · Aug 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$70
- No · Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$949 at 41.3¢ · Aug 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $220left out of every figure—
- No · Will Karrin Taylor Robson win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?$155 at 99¢ · Jul 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Trump out as President by June 30?$66 at 98.8¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$0 at 78¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$28
- No · Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$3 at 62¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$61
- No · Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$2,442 at 96.7¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- Yes · Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?$25 at 26¢ · Jun 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 307 settled bets.
25 more open bets
No · Trump out as President before 2027?
$4,250 at 85¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85¢ pays $118Yes · Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$2,352 at 25.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 25.1¢ pays $398No · Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$2,295 at 91.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.8¢ pays $109No · Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
$2,192 at 48.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 48.3¢ pays $207Yes · Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
$1,862 at 70.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 70.4¢ pays $142No · Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
$1,809 at 23.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 23.8¢ pays $420No · Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
$1,228 at 61.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 61.4¢ pays $163No · Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?
$1,015 at 89¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89¢ pays $112Boy · Anne Hathaway baby: Boy or Girl?
$951 at 51.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 51.2¢ pays $195Yes · Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
$864 at 43.2¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 43.2¢ pays $231No · US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
$716 at 77¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 77¢ pays $130No · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
$687 at 62.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 62.5¢ pays $160No · AI bubble burst in 2026?
$684 at 90.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.1¢ pays $111Yes · Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$619 at 3.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.1¢ pays $3,257No · Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$500 at 85.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85.7¢ pays $117No · Will Jared Polis announce a Presidential run before 2027?
$476 at 91.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.3¢ pays $109No · Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?
$468 at 80.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 80.3¢ pays $124No · Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
$335 at 81¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 81¢ pays $123Yes · Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
$291 at 33.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 33.6¢ pays $298Yes · Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
$266 at 15.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 15.3¢ pays $651Yes · Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
$261 at 1.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 1.8¢ pays $5,556Yes · Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
$221 at 4.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 4.7¢ pays $2,137Yes · Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$190 at 0.93¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 0.93¢ pays $10,753No · Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
$173 at 71¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71¢ pays $141No · Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2027?
$146 at 90¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90¢ pays $111
By topic · $100 →
- Politics175 bets$111
- Crypto52 bets$99
- Sports36 bets$76
- Other16 bets$91
- Tech14 bets$76
- Esports6 bets$81
- NBA5 bets$173
- Culture2 bets$57
- Soccer1 bets$0
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$204,745 · unrealized +$9,541 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 39 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $100.83 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 6 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (99 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 23:05 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x477f156a229f1a174fdf945c778b7362dd2b19aa · ← All whale receipts