Yes · Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
$43,467 at 87¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87¢ pays $115
Arbguy0x53e5…6177
Every $100 on their bets came back as $88.53 · 281 bets settled since Oct 9
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 40 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $55.07 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (8 left out). Checked 2026-10-01 19:39 UTC.
Best at Sports · $100 → $107last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
Yes · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$35,068 at 22.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 22.6¢ pays $443No · Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$29,249 at 82.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82.6¢ pays $121
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- Yes · Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?$3,030 at 23.5¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Giants · Giants vs. Rams$8,100 at 27¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Israel closes its airspace by September 30?$1,702 at 73¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$37
- Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$15,870 at 47.2¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$112
- Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1,001 at 1.4¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Giants · Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)$8,126 at 54¢ · Sep 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$85
- Giants · Cowboys vs. Giants$7,605 at 39¢ · Sep 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$156
- No · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$44,300 at 73.8¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$35
- Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$441 at 4¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$40,190 at 83.4¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$20
- Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$908 at 17¢ · Aug 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$24,397 at 48.9¢ · Aug 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?$337 at 1.4¢ · Aug 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$2,115 at 31¢ · Aug 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?$17,997 at 71¢ · Aug 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$41
- Yes · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$1,502 at 6.3¢ · Aug 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$2,058 at 25.1¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Israel closes its airspace by July 31?$3,098 at 24.9¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$21,226 at 94.2¢ · Jul 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- No · Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$636 at 50¢ · Jul 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$100
- Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$15,600 at 78¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$28
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$15,088 at 68¢ · Jul 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$47
- Yes · Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$20 at 17.1¢ · Jul 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Chris Moneymaker cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?$47 at 94¢ · Jul 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $5left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Chris Moneymaker cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?$5 at 99¢ · Jul 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Israel closes its airspace by July 24?$2,077 at 86.9¢ · Jul 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
- Argentina · Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$10,250 at 41¢ · Jul 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?$755 at 47.6¢ · Jul 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$110
- Yes · Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$2,371 at 13.3¢ · Jul 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?$1 at 1.7¢ · Jul 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2,600 at 2.6¢ · Jul 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Norway · Norway vs. England: Team to Advance$348 at 32¢ · Jul 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $92,449left out of every figure—
- No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$92,449 at 98.2¢ · Jul 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$31,093 at 83.7¢ · Jul 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?$5,873 at 61.8¢ · Jul 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$62
- Yes · Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$4,655 at 27.8¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Norway · Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance$3,750 at 30¢ · Jul 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$233
- No · Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?$5,750 at 46¢ · Jul 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$117
- No · Will Jason Kelce be a groomsman at Taylor Swift's wedding?$1,206 at 8.7¢ · Jul 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?$93 at 42.5¢ · Jul 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$17,179 at 58.7¢ · Jul 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$70
- Yes · Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$285 at 2.9¢ · Jul 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$282 at 9¢ · Jul 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$4,240 at 20¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$4,475 at 43.2¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$9,832 at 17.3¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?$1,175 at 3.5¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$54,983 at 14.9¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?$11,509 at 46¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$117
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $28,446left out of every figure—
- No · Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?$28,446 at 97.7¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 281 settled bets.
23 more open bets
Yes · Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
$27,986 at 31.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 31.6¢ pays $316Yes · Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$27,702 at 48.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 48.2¢ pays $208Yes · Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
$23,302 at 49.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 49.4¢ pays $203Yes · Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
$17,077 at 11¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 11¢ pays $909Yes · Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$16,229 at 83¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 83¢ pays $121No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
$14,641 at 76¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 76¢ pays $132Yes · Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$11,876 at 1.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 1.3¢ pays $7,519Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
$10,919 at 41¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 41¢ pays $244Yes · Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$10,670 at 0.66¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 0.66¢ pays $15,152No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
$8,000 at 80¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 80¢ pays $125No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
$7,800 at 65¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 65¢ pays $154No · Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$6,367 at 49.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 49.8¢ pays $201No · Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
$6,047 at 34¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 34¢ pays $294Yes · Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$5,453 at 5.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 5.1¢ pays $1,957No · Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
$4,617 at 36.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 36.3¢ pays $276Yes · Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
$1,079 at 8.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 8.9¢ pays $1,126Yes · Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
$386 at 83.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 83.1¢ pays $120No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$95 at 25¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 25¢ pays $400Yes · Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
$23 at 41¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 41¢ pays $244Yes · US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
$23 at 26.2¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 26.2¢ pays $382Yes · Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?
$21 at 0.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 0.8¢ pays $12,500No · Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
$5 at 62.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 62.6¢ pays $160Yes · Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
$0 at 24.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 24.8¢ pays $403
By topic · $100 →
- Politics188 bets$85
- Sports30 bets$107
- Other22 bets$40
- NFL16 bets$137
- Soccer9 bets$85
- Crypto5 bets$72
- Culture2 bets$93
- MLB2 bets$243
- NBA2 bets$213
- Tech2 bets$120
- Weather2 bets$0
- Golf1 bets$141
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$534,309 · unrealized −$87,314 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 40 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $55.07 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (8 left out). Checked 2026-10-01 19:39 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177 · ← All whale receipts