Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
$10,004 at 82¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82¢ pays $122
can1110x5cfd…ca1b
Every $100 on their bets came back as $91.41 · 615 bets settled since May 31
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 56 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $75.99 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (22 left out). Checked 2026-10-02 20:14 UTC.
Best at Culture · $100 → $107last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$2,000 at 85¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85¢ pays $118No · Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
$1,000 at 94.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.6¢ pays $106
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- Seahawks · Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)$100 at 59¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Bills · Spread: Bills (-6.5)$100 at 55¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$82
- Chiefs · Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)$100 at 64.7¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$55
- Jaguars · Spread: Broncos (-2.5)$100 at 48¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will FC Porto win on 2026-09-20?$100 at 69¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-09-20?$500 at 93¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- Eagles · Spread: Eagles (-7.5)$100 at 47¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Jets · Packers vs. Jets$200 at 85¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Packers · Packers vs. Jets$100 at 62¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$61
- Yes · Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-20?$100 at 62¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$61
- AC Milan · Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)$100 at 64¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$56
- Yes · Will Estoril Praia vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw?$100 at 57¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20?$100 at 81¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$23
- Yes · Will Warsh say "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during September Press Conference?$10 at 34¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$10,000 at 87¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
- Yes · Will Gaziantep FK vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw?$100 at 50¢ · Sep 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$100
- Packers · Packers vs. Vikings$100 at 57¢ · Sep 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Chargers · Cardinals vs. Chargers$200 at 80¢ · Sep 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Ben Shelton · US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton$100 at 13¢ · Sep 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Up · Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$5 at 58¢ · Sep 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$72
- Yes · Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-10?$300 at 92¢ · Sep 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- Over · Como 1907 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5$60 at 67¢ · Sep 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$49
- Yes · Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-10?$500 at 91¢ · Sep 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- Yes · Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. AS Roma end in a draw?$200 at 80¢ · Sep 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$25
- Yes · Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?$100 at 52.4¢ · Sep 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Andrey Rublev · US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev$101 at 80¢ · Aug 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$25
- Arthur Fils · US Open ATP: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Fils$100 at 85.8¢ · Aug 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-30?$300 at 85¢ · Aug 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
- Yes · Will FC Porto win on 2026-08-23?$300 at 70¢ · Aug 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$43
- Paris Saint-Germain FC · Spread: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (-1.5)$200 at 88.8¢ · Aug 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
- Yes · Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-23?$62 at 17.6¢ · Aug 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-21?$200 at 84¢ · Aug 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$19
- No · Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$456 at 87.8¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- Yes · Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1,000 at 51.5¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$94
- Yes · Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$100 at 36¢ · Jul 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$178
- Yes · Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals$30 at 36¢ · Jul 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Spain · Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$900 at 94.3¢ · Jul 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals$72 at 42¢ · Jul 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Under · Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5$100 at 33¢ · Jul 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$203
- Spain · Spread: Spain (-1.5)$50 at 20.5¢ · Jul 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Over · France vs. England: France O/U 2.5$200 at 81¢ · Jul 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$23
- Yes · Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals$200 at 52.7¢ · Jul 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$90
- Yes · Will France vs. England end in a draw?$100 at 16.9¢ · Jul 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Under · France vs. England: O/U 6.5$100 at 9.7¢ · Jul 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- France · Spread: France (-1.5)$300 at 34¢ · Jul 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$300 at 87¢ · Jul 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
- Yes · Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?$300 at 75¢ · Jul 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will England win on 2026-07-15?$400 at 36.2¢ · Jul 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$500 at 39.5¢ · Jul 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?$100 at 55¢ · Jul 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$82
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 615 settled bets.
7 more open bets
No · Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
$1,000 at 92¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109No · Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
$1,000 at 75¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 75¢ pays $133Yes · Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
$130 at 13¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 13¢ pays $769Yes · Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
$100 at 11¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 11¢ pays $910Yes · Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
$10 at 1.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 1.8¢ pays $5,714Yes · Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
$6 at 3.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.2¢ pays $3,135Yes · Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
$1 at 0.09¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 0.09¢ pays $111,111
By topic · $100 →
- Other172 bets$93
- Politics157 bets$95
- Soccer99 bets$98
- NFL42 bets$79
- Sports39 bets$89
- Tennis30 bets$36
- Tech24 bets$105
- Culture21 bets$107
- Economy17 bets$81
- Crypto7 bets$111
- NBA4 bets$130
- Weather2 bets$57
- Golf1 bets$149
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$22,713 · unrealized +$5 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 56 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $75.99 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (22 left out). Checked 2026-10-02 20:14 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x5cfd881133ff44d1f7b81ea8a819a30dfc39ca1b · ← All whale receipts