Yes · Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
$53,709 at 22.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 22.8¢ pays $439
RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a
Every $100 on their bets came back as $97.76 · 193 bets settled since Jun 13
Why verified
- 134 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $100.32 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 2 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (10 left out). Checked 2026-11-06 11:37 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $99last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
Yes · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
$43,589 at 17.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 17.6¢ pays $568No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
$34,906 at 29.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 29.8¢ pays $335
Watch in this browserWatch in Telegram (opens in a new tab)
Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- Yes · Will Democrats win 6 or more House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?$64 at 15.4¢ · Nov 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$549
- No · Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?$148 at 69.7¢ · Nov 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$43
- Yes · Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?$146 at 32.8¢ · Nov 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?$212 at 75.2¢ · Nov 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$33
- Yes · Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$704 at 23.6¢ · Nov 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$324
- Yes · Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?$1,287 at 13.2¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?$275 at 81.1¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$23
- No · Will Democrats win exactly 8 House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections?$422 at 95¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$891 at 42¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$138
- No · 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House$428 at 86¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- Yes · Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?$372 at 47.2¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$112
- Yes · Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$5,044 at 23.3¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$330
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$8 at 40¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$150
- Yes · Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?$299 at 38¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$163
- No · Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?$639 at 74¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$35
- Democratic Party · House control favorite on November 2?$1,147 at 95¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$3 at 65¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$54
- Yes · NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$105 at 10¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Republican Senate odds hit 50% by October 31?$168 at 63.1¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$59
- No · Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?$310 at 41.1¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$143
- No · Republican Senate odds hit 45% by October 31?$561 at 50.4¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$98
- Yes · Republican Senate odds dip to 25% by October 31?$2 at 28¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?$206 at 67.4¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$48
- No · Republican House odds hit 20% by October 31?$174 at 92¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $1,107left out of every figure—
- No · IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?$1,107 at 98.4¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?$7,883 at 77.1¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$30
- No · Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?$21,778 at 78.8¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$27
- Yes · Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?$1,496 at 8.2¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$5,945 at 29.3¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$242
- Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$748 at 63¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$398 at 26.8¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$457 at 19¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$602 at 91.1¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- No · Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$1,389 at 63.3¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$68 at 21.5¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$365
- Yes · Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$929 at 34.8¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$2,265 at 50.5¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?$671 at 30.1¢ · Oct 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$232
- No · US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?$3 at 26¢ · Oct 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$1,312 at 73.3¢ · Oct 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$37
- Yes · Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?$1,707 at 88¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- No · US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?$82 at 11.8¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1 at 11.1¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?$157 at 49.4¢ · Oct 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$103
- No · Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?$1,203 at 91.3¢ · Oct 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?$51 at 9¢ · Oct 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?$154 at 15¢ · Oct 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $203left out of every figure—
- No · Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?$203 at 99.7¢ · Oct 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$13 at 50¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$100
- Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$8,160 at 23.8¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 193 settled bets.
35 more open bets
Yes · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
$11,384 at 7.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 7.8¢ pays $1,280Yes · Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
$11,299 at 5.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 5.8¢ pays $1,733Yes · Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
$11,250 at 50¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50¢ pays $200No · Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
$11,250 at 50¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50¢ pays $200Yes · Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
$9,468 at 20.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 20.8¢ pays $482Yes · Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$7,028 at 0.86¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 0.86¢ pays $11,628No · Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
$6,741 at 56¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 56¢ pays $179Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
$6,384 at 10.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 10.6¢ pays $940Yes · Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
$6,375 at 42.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 42.5¢ pays $235No · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
$5,286 at 39.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 39.8¢ pays $251Yes · Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$4,694 at 11.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 11.6¢ pays $864Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
$4,107 at 30.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 30.9¢ pays $323No · US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
$3,524 at 71.2¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71.2¢ pays $141Yes · Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$3,319 at 6.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 6.2¢ pays $1,626No · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
$3,241 at 64.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 64.8¢ pays $154No · IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?
$3,186 at 69.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 69.5¢ pays $144No · Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$2,884 at 75.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 75.7¢ pays $132Yes · US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
$2,629 at 13.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 13.7¢ pays $732No · Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
$2,575 at 29¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 29¢ pays $345Yes · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
$2,267 at 28.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 28.4¢ pays $352Yes · Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?
$2,227 at 9.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 9.8¢ pays $1,024Yes · Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
$2,176 at 57.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 57.4¢ pays $174Yes · Iran Nuke before 2027?
$1,860 at 8.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 8.1¢ pays $1,242No · Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
$1,857 at 86.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86.7¢ pays $115Yes · Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
$1,851 at 74¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74¢ pays $135Yes · Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
$1,630 at 26.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 26.3¢ pays $381No · Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
$1,590 at 41.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 41.9¢ pays $238No · Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
$1,590 at 79.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79.5¢ pays $126Yes · Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
$1,354 at 22.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 22.9¢ pays $436No · Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
$1,277 at 95.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.8¢ pays $104No · Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31?
$1,135 at 60.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 60.7¢ pays $165Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
$1,102 at 33.2¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 33.2¢ pays $301Yes · Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$1,087 at 17.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 17.5¢ pays $572No · Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
$986 at 53.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 53.4¢ pays $187Yes · Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
$938 at 36.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 36.8¢ pays $272
By topic · $100 →
- Politics177 bets$99
- Soccer10 bets$75
- Other5 bets$120
- Tech1 bets$0
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$1,328,731 · unrealized +$99,091 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 134 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $100.32 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 2 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (10 left out). Checked 2026-11-06 11:37 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x6139c42e48cf190e67a0a85d492413b499336b7a · ← All whale receipts