Yes · Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$55,000 at 50¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50¢ pays $200
eCash0x62cf…5826
Every $100 on their bets came back as $110.26 · 195 bets settled since Dec 8
Why verified
- 54 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $122.17 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (9 left out). Checked 2026-10-05 11:13 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $120last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$55,000 at 50¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50¢ pays $200No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$53,074 at 80¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 80¢ pays $125
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- Yes · US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30?$6,714 at 85.8¢ · Oct 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- No · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?$48 at 65¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$54
- Yes · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?$4 at 17¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$62 at 57¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$75
- No · Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?$3,215 at 40.1¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$149
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$30,980 at 84.8¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
- Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?$23,412 at 82.9¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$21
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?$7,291 at 86¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- Yes · US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 25?$580 at 90¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?$15,657 at 86.3¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- Yes · US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?$53 at 91.7¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- No · Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?$1,027 at 64.9¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$54
- Yes · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$4,373 at 75¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$33
- Yes · Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$539 at 61¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$64
- Yes · Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$15 at 4.6¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?$4,269 at 95.1¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · Israel closes its airspace by September 30?$5,248 at 35.6¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Israel closes its airspace by September 30?$6,800 at 95¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?$191 at 67.8¢ · Sep 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?$11,808 at 39.8¢ · Sep 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$151
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?$4,713 at 68.6¢ · Sep 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$46
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?$43 at 57¢ · Sep 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$75
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?$1,391 at 77.4¢ · Sep 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$29
- No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?$357 at 51¢ · Sep 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?$553 at 60.5¢ · Sep 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$65
- Yes · Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?$0 at 0.11¢ · Sep 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$18,650 at 72.4¢ · Sep 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$38
- No · Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026?$238 at 52.6¢ · Sep 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?$77 at 51¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$96
- Yes · Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?$102 at 63¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$59
- No · US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?$605 at 74¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$35
- No · Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$1,982 at 56¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$79
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$3,920 at 26.1¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$283
- No · US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$7,723 at 82.2¢ · Aug 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$22
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$1,328 at 72.3¢ · Aug 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$38
- No · US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$712 at 54¢ · Aug 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$85
- Yes · US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$219 at 50¢ · Aug 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$6,040 at 33.8¢ · Aug 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$195
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?$908 at 48¢ · Aug 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$108
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?$96 at 59.8¢ · Aug 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$67
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?$1,773 at 62¢ · Aug 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$61
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$5,754 at 85.3¢ · Aug 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$844 at 21.5¢ · Aug 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$365
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$18,465 at 88.4¢ · Aug 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?$406 at 65¢ · Aug 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$54
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?$1,632 at 74.2¢ · Aug 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$35
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?$800 at 80¢ · Aug 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$25
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?$2,434 at 83¢ · Aug 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$20
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$6,082 at 59¢ · Aug 8 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$69
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?$915 at 67¢ · Aug 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$49
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 195 settled bets.
38 more open bets
No · Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
$31,967 at 79.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79.5¢ pays $126No · Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
$22,998 at 87.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87.8¢ pays $114No · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
$22,910 at 78.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 78.6¢ pays $127No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
$19,859 at 76.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 76.4¢ pays $131No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
$17,800 at 89¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89¢ pays $112No · Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
$15,373 at 78.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 78.3¢ pays $128Yes · Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
$12,089 at 93¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93¢ pays $108No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
$9,394 at 66¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 66¢ pays $152No · Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
$9,346 at 87.2¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87.2¢ pays $115Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$7,158 at 79.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79.4¢ pays $126No · Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
$5,575 at 76.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 76.6¢ pays $131No · Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
$5,560 at 92.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.7¢ pays $108Yes · Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
$4,776 at 53.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 53.1¢ pays $188No · US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
$3,675 at 52.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 52.4¢ pays $191No · US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
$3,669 at 51.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 51.6¢ pays $194No · Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
$2,341 at 82.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82.7¢ pays $121No · Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
$2,001 at 42.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 42.6¢ pays $235Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
$1,850 at 61.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 61.7¢ pays $162No · Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
$1,540 at 77¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 77¢ pays $130No · Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
$1,268 at 51¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 51¢ pays $196No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
$850 at 85¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85¢ pays $118Yes · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
$845 at 58.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 58.3¢ pays $171Yes · Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
$735 at 49¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 49¢ pays $204Yes · Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
$696 at 29.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 29.8¢ pays $336Yes · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
$681 at 68.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 68.1¢ pays $147Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
$670 at 67¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 67¢ pays $149Yes · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?
$619 at 30.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 30.9¢ pays $323No · Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?
$380 at 47.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 47.6¢ pays $210Yes · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?
$205 at 43.2¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 43.2¢ pays $231No · Will US annex any territory in 2026?
$204 at 85.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85.8¢ pays $116No · Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
$170 at 74¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74¢ pays $135No · Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?
$145 at 16.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 16.1¢ pays $621No · Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?
$130 at 13¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 13¢ pays $769No · Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?
$61 at 90¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90¢ pays $111No · Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?
$50 at 21¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 21¢ pays $476No · Clavicular convicted of rape?
$39 at 73¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 73¢ pays $137Yes · Will the Bitcoin halving occur by June 30, 2028?
$7 at 85¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85¢ pays $118No · Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
$1 at 82¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82¢ pays $122
By topic · $100 →
- Politics119 bets$120
- Culture31 bets$79
- Sports23 bets$102
- Other14 bets$119
- Crypto5 bets$101
- Weather2 bets$67
- Tech1 bets$181
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$296,286 · unrealized +$20,727 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 54 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $122.17 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (9 left out). Checked 2026-10-05 11:13 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x62cf46cd4c3af254dccfc37a7f93de265b4b5826 · ← All whale receipts