Yes · Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
$135,000 at 50¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50¢ pays $200
mombil0x68c2…1711
Every $100 on their bets came back as $137.31 · 250 bets settled since May 14
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 123 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $67.76 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (3 left out). Checked 2026-10-01 16:11 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $142last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
$135,000 at 50¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50¢ pays $200No · Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
$45,095 at 82¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82¢ pays $122
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- No · Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?$814 at 80¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$25
- Yes · Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?$370 at 16.8¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?$117 at 74.6¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$34
- Yes · Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$1,391 at 3.1¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$2,651 at 32.6¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?$54 at 2.3¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in September?$237 at 92.7¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- Yes · Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$626 at 26¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq by September 30, 2026?$4 at 0.78¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?$19 at 0.54¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$3,770 at 24¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$316
- Yes · Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes?$246 at 10.6¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes?$582 at 15¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$1,170 at 29.7¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$3,148 at 62¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$61
- Yes · Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$8,706 at 28.1¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$4,180 at 85.4¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$6,446 at 52¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$117 at 50¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$100
- Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$13,059 at 50.1¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?$58 at 3.1¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Sinner · Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026?$232 at 65.5¢ · Sep 13 · void · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Alcaraz · Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026?$84 at 60¢ · Sep 13 · void · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?$640 at 73.5¢ · Sep 10 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$36
- Yes · 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?$1,013 at 16.9¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?$39 at 17.7¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?$32 at 7.5¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$272 at 17¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$19 at 17¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?$137 at 73.8¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$36
- Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?$1,360 at 16.7¢ · Sep 8 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?$44 at 12¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$733
- Yes · Will Linke win between 9% and 12% of all valid second votes?$520 at 51¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Linke win between 12% and 15% of all valid second votes?$399 at 55¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$82
- Yes · Will CDU win between 23% and 26% of all valid second votes?$183 at 30.3¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?$374 at 8.7¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in August?$9 at 7.9¢ · Sep 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City?$1,702 at 56.3¢ · Sep 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$78
- Yes · Apple Maps renames Lake Ontario to Lake America by September 4?$4 at 74¢ · Sep 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$35
- Yes · Apple Maps renames Lake Ontario to Lake America by September 3?$34 at 78.5¢ · Sep 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$27
- Yes · Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?$362 at 10.3¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Israel closes its airspace by August 31?$3,375 at 27.7¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Iran full airspace closure by August 31?$1,148 at 30¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$3,718 at 5.5¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$572 at 4.5¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?$321 at 5.7¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?$62 at 4¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?$62 at 3.8¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?$283 at 5.1¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?$76 at 4.8¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 250 settled bets.
47 more open bets
No · Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
$12,043 at 80.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 80.3¢ pays $125Yes · Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$11,395 at 3.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.9¢ pays $2,584Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
$10,512 at 69¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 69¢ pays $145Yes · Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$5,997 at 59¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 59¢ pays $170Yes · Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$5,908 at 12.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 12.2¢ pays $822No · Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?
$5,317 at 94.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.5¢ pays $106No · Iran leadership change by December 31?
$5,265 at 69.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 69.1¢ pays $145No · Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
$4,060 at 57¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 57¢ pays $175Yes · Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$3,588 at 2.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 2.3¢ pays $4,348Yes · Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
$3,423 at 14.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 14.3¢ pays $700Yes · Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
$3,324 at 18.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 18.2¢ pays $550Yes · Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$3,034 at 20.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 20.6¢ pays $484No · Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
$2,904 at 45.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 45.8¢ pays $218No · Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
$2,800 at 14¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 14¢ pays $714Yes · Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?
$2,363 at 47.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 47.8¢ pays $209Yes · Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$2,363 at 2.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 2.1¢ pays $4,854Yes · Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
$2,175 at 60.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 60.3¢ pays $166No · Will Katie Britt announce a presidential run before 2027?
$2,072 at 92.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.4¢ pays $108Yes · Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$2,037 at 1.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 1.3¢ pays $7,937Yes · Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
$1,971 at 44.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 44.7¢ pays $224No · Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
$1,793 at 91.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.4¢ pays $109No · Will Byron Donalds announce a presidential run before 2027?
$1,781 at 94.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.7¢ pays $106Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
$1,706 at 25¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 25¢ pays $400No · Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany?
$1,706 at 75.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 75.4¢ pays $133Yes · Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$1,673 at 15.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 15.8¢ pays $632No · Will Mike Pence announce a presidential run before 2027?
$1,637 at 92.2¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.2¢ pays $108No · Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders announce a presidential run before 2027?
$1,536 at 91.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.7¢ pays $109No · Will Roy Cooper announce a Presidential run before 2027?
$1,360 at 93.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.7¢ pays $107No · Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?
$1,309 at 94.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.9¢ pays $105No · Will Chelsea Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027?
$1,307 at 93¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93¢ pays $108Yes · Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$1,281 at 0.25¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 0.25¢ pays $40,000Yes · Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
$1,202 at 19.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 19.9¢ pays $504No · Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?
$1,172 at 19¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 19¢ pays $525No · Will John Thune announce a presidential run before 2027?
$1,139 at 93.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.3¢ pays $107No · Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027?
$1,057 at 96¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96¢ pays $104Yes · Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo
$996 at 18.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 18.3¢ pays $546No · Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?
$977 at 94.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.2¢ pays $106Yes · Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$961 at 4.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 4.6¢ pays $2,165Yes · Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
$930 at 31¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 31¢ pays $323No · Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?
$921 at 94¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94¢ pays $106No · Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?
$917 at 66.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 66.1¢ pays $151No · Will Elise Stefanik announce a presidential run before 2027?
$905 at 90.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.5¢ pays $111No · Will Mark Cuban announce a Presidential run before 2027?
$892 at 93.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.5¢ pays $107No · Will Liz Cheney announce a Presidential run before 2027?
$866 at 92.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.4¢ pays $108Yes · Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$861 at 0.48¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 0.48¢ pays $20,833No · Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
$832 at 31.2¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 31.2¢ pays $321No · US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
$830 at 81¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 81¢ pays $123
By topic · $100 →
- Politics187 bets$142
- Other43 bets$83
- Soccer9 bets$38
- Economy3 bets$89
- Tech3 bets$88
- Weather3 bets$1,104
- Culture1 bets$0
- Sports1 bets$0
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$494,044 · unrealized +$22,048 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 123 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $67.76 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (3 left out). Checked 2026-10-01 16:11 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x68c24bf4a8ad4d79a6fe4b8eec6f93a02dfd1711 · ← All whale receipts