Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?
$15,424 at 95.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.5¢ pays $105
0x6bab…0fe5
Every $100 on their bets came back as $93.55 · 165 bets settled since Apr 16
Why verified
- 58 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $107.88 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 4 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (5 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $111last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
$14,845 at 72.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 72.4¢ pays $138No · Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?
$9,304 at 93.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.9¢ pays $107
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- No · Will RZP-Zehut win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?$257 at 72.9¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$37
- No · Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?$3,380 at 88.8¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
- No · Will Shas win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?$287 at 74.6¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Shas win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?$239 at 94.1¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?$730 at 85.4¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- Yes · Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?$99 at 65.3¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$53
- Yes · Will Yashar win 20-21 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?$376 at 79.4¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$26
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$16,429 at 80.8¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$24
- Yes · Will Yashar win 22-23 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?$77 at 59.9¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$3,308 at 66.5¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$50
- No · Will Blue and White win 3.25% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?$37 at 84.5¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$9,794 at 60.9¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$64
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $93left out of every figure—
- No · Will Shas win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?$93 at 97.7¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Will Joint List win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$101 at 92.4¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- No · Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?$2,328 at 87.3¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
- No · Will Dems win 14 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?$34 at 85.5¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- No · Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$1,630 at 64.3¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$56
- Yes · Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$691 at 15.1¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Joint List win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$2,036 at 86.5¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- Yes · Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$5,532 at 84.6¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
- Bibi · Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?$4,864 at 51.4¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$95
- No · Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$15,752 at 82.4¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$21
- Yes · Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$1,911 at 19.8¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$405
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $10left out of every figure—
- No · Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$10 at 97.3¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$4,251 at 37.4¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$167
- Yes · Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$13,334 at 40.8¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$145
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?$55 at 85.6¢ · Oct 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?$253 at 94¢ · Oct 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Merab Dvalishvili · UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)$202 at 42¢ · Oct 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will there be no Hormuz agreement?$9,488 at 88.1¢ · Oct 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?$785 at 77¢ · Oct 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$30
- No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$11,163 at 85¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
- No · Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?$409 at 91¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- No · Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?$44 at 93¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- No · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?$3,469 at 86.2¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- No · Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?$2,084 at 77.8¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$29
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$4,142 at 72.4¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$38
- No · Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?$1,132 at 70.6¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$42
- No · Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?$2,419 at 86.2¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?$6,148 at 78¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$28
- Yes · Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$12,456 at 70.3¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?$3,144 at 82¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$15,257 at 85.5¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$2,012 at 83¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$20
- No · Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit & RZP Run on Same List?$222 at 77¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$30
- No · Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?$4,572 at 65.1¢ · Sep 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$54
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$1,858 at 84.6¢ · Sep 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
- No · Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?$89 at 90¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- No · IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?$83 at 91¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- No · Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?$5,331 at 84.7¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 165 settled bets.
33 more open bets
No · Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
$9,073 at 53.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 53.5¢ pays $187Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?
$8,805 at 88.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.3¢ pays $113No · Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?
$6,237 at 86.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86.8¢ pays $115Yes · Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
$3,924 at 84.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.1¢ pays $119Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?
$3,881 at 87¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87¢ pays $115No · Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
$3,191 at 88.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.1¢ pays $113Yes · Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
$3,159 at 79.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79.9¢ pays $125No · Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?
$2,814 at 89.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89.4¢ pays $112Yes · Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
$2,026 at 47.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 47.2¢ pays $212No · Will the New Economic Party / The Reservists be in the next Israeli government?
$1,353 at 87.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87.8¢ pays $114No · Kash Patel out by December 31?
$1,127 at 74.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74.3¢ pays $135No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
$1,020 at 85¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85¢ pays $118No · Israel military action against Greater Beirut by November 30?
$889 at 71.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71.2¢ pays $140Yes · Will RZP-Zehut win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
$867 at 89.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89.6¢ pays $112Yes · Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 4-5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
$572 at 71.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71.1¢ pays $141Yes · Will Otzma Yehudit win 5.5-6.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
$401 at 84.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.5¢ pays $118Yes · Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
$367 at 82.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82.4¢ pays $121No · Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
$367 at 88¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88¢ pays $114Yes · Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
$351 at 20.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 20.1¢ pays $499Yes · Will The Democrats win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
$322 at 88.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.2¢ pays $113No · Will the Netanyahu bloc win the Israeli election by 7+ seats?
$266 at 87.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87.4¢ pays $114Yes · Will Yashar win 16-18% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
$265 at 76.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 76.6¢ pays $131No · Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
$221 at 71¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71¢ pays $141No · Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?
$220 at 90.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.6¢ pays $110No · Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026?
$209 at 81.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 81.8¢ pays $122Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?
$146 at 92.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.9¢ pays $108No · Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win less than 3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
$113 at 81¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 81¢ pays $123Yes · Will Together win 9-11% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
$104 at 83.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 83.2¢ pays $120No · Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
$74 at 73¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 73¢ pays $137No · Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?
$59 at 74.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74.3¢ pays $135No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
$43 at 86¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86¢ pays $116Yes · Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?
$13 at 23¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 23¢ pays $435Yes · Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?
$8 at 12¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 12¢ pays $833
By topic · $100 →
- Politics112 bets$111
- Soccer33 bets$32
- Tech9 bets$101
- MMA6 bets$91
- Economy2 bets$59
- Sports2 bets$131
- Culture1 bets$137
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$243,756 · unrealized +$8,686 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 58 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $107.88 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 4 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (5 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x6bab66c4bb24c96ed14dcca0f0979b38a6830fe5 · ← All whale receipts