No · Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
$16,100 at 90.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.8¢ pays $110
Rafael880x720b…37f6
Every $100 on their bets came back as $119.57 · 78 bets settled since Jun 16
Why verified
- 33 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $124.14 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 5 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (2 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $172last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
$9,702 at 83.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 83.9¢ pays $119No · Xi Jinping out before 2027?
$7,871 at 96.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.9¢ pays $103
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?$566 at 92¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$1,342 at 75.1¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$33
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$16,016 at 66.2¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$51
- Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$39 at 44¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?$2,603 at 76.7¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$30
- No · Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$4,231 at 15.2¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$557
- Yes · Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$11,778 at 48.9¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$8,540 at 12.4¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$703
- Yes · Will there be no Hormuz agreement?$441 at 88.3¢ · Oct 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?$556 at 90¢ · Oct 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- No · Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?$2,010 at 87¢ · Oct 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
- Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$230 at 2.8¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?$13 at 19.4¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$415
- Yes · Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$4 at 8.3¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$378 at 25.5¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$292
- Yes · Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$192 at 5.1¢ · Oct 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$2,879 at 50.2¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$99
- No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?$268 at 16.9¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?$185 at 71.8¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$39
- Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?$82 at 2.1¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?$48 at 80¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?$1,810 at 52.6¢ · Sep 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$90
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$119 at 93.7¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$7
- Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$122 at 13.1¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$157 at 63¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$59
- Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$6 at 78¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?$67 at 36¢ · Aug 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$178
- No · US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?$25 at 8.4¢ · Aug 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1,091
- No · US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?$17 at 1.5¢ · Aug 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$14 at 85¢ · Aug 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?$234 at 69.2¢ · Aug 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$44
- No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$13 at 80¢ · Aug 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$2,915 at 34.4¢ · Aug 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$191
- Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2,085 at 50.1¢ · Aug 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$696 at 38.3¢ · Jul 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$358 at 3.5¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4,943 at 6.2¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will United States win on 2026-07-01?$717 at 87¢ · Jul 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
- Yes · Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$250 at 21¢ · Jul 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?$216 at 96¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?$913 at 96.1¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- Yes · Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?$467 at 16¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?$417 at 86.6¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- Yes · Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?$24 at 55¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?$1,461 at 85¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$422 at 3.8¢ · Jun 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?$420 at 96¢ · Jun 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- Yes · Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$118 at 0.2¢ · Jun 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?$151 at 51.5¢ · Jun 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$94
- Yes · Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?$286 at 59¢ · Jun 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$69
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 78 settled bets.
13 more open bets
Yes · Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
$6,985 at 86.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86.2¢ pays $116No · US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?
$2,722 at 94.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.4¢ pays $106No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
$2,702 at 63.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 63.8¢ pays $157No · US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
$2,320 at 76.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 76.4¢ pays $131No · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
$2,030 at 84.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.2¢ pays $119Yes · Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
$1,124 at 78.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 78.9¢ pays $127No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$986 at 83¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 83¢ pays $120No · Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
$731 at 73.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 73.2¢ pays $137Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
$723 at 57.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 57.6¢ pays $174No · Iran leadership change by November 30?
$652 at 92¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109No · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
$609 at 87¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87¢ pays $115Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
$525 at 66¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 66¢ pays $152No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
$103 at 67.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 67.2¢ pays $149
By topic · $100 →
- Soccer42 bets$76
- Politics35 bets$172
- Culture1 bets$115
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$49,417 · unrealized −$227 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 33 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $124.14 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 5 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (2 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x720bd69011aa5a9ef7846e88648218a7b33d37f6 · ← All whale receipts