No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$65,434 at 84.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.4¢ pays $118
GOLADS960x894d…04e2
Every $100 on their bets came back as $131.39 · 55 bets settled since Sep 25
Why verified
- 55 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $102.68 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (6 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $144last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
Anthropic · Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
$7,841 at 95.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.5¢ pays $105Yes · NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
$4,853 at 23.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 23.1¢ pays $433
Watch in this browserWatch in Telegram (opens in a new tab)
Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- No · Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?$3,561 at 87.7¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$4,350 at 86¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- No · Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by October 31, 2026?$771 at 89.6¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$12
- No · Saudi troops enter Taiz Governorate by October 31, 2026?$1,269 at 84.6¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
- No · Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?$13,963 at 90.1¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- No · Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)$122 at 81¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$23
- No · Will Trump praise Allah again by October 31?$254 at 63.6¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$57
- No · Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?$1,838 at 89¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$12
- No · Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 31, 2026?$1,570 at 78¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$28
- No · Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?$4,705 at 93.2¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$7
- No · Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?$2,125 at 85¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
- No · US imports Russian diesel by October 31?$1,076 at 90.4¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- No · Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?$90 at 90¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$11,030 at 86.2¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- No · France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?$5,586 at 92.9¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- Yes · US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?$5,179 at 89.8¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- No · Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?$400 at 76.1¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$31
- Yes · Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6?$31 at 64¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$56
- Yes · Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?$259 at 69.2¢ · Oct 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$45
- No · Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2,860 at 81.7¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24?$378 at 79.4¢ · Oct 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$26
- No · Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?$70 at 75.3¢ · Oct 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$33
- Yes · Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 24?$1,359 at 89.4¢ · Oct 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$12
- Yes · Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 21?$2,273 at 87.9¢ · Oct 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- Yes · Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?$44 at 8¢ · Oct 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1,150
- No · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?$794 at 86.6¢ · Oct 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?$10,866 at 90.2¢ · Oct 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- No · Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?$2,331 at 89.9¢ · Oct 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?$2,355 at 93¢ · Oct 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- No · Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026?$2,790 at 93¢ · Oct 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- Yes · Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 10?$114 at 64.2¢ · Oct 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$56
- Yes · Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 9?$25 at 63¢ · Oct 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$59
- Yes · Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 7?$105 at 62¢ · Oct 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$61
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $3,302left out of every figure—
- Yes · US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?$3,302 at 97.1¢ · Oct 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- Spirit · Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs$672 at 56¢ · Oct 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$79
- Spirit · Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner$54 at 51¢ · Oct 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$96
- FURIA · Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs$420 at 42¢ · Oct 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?$7 at 85¢ · Oct 8 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
- Rebels Gaming · Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs Lazer Cats (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B$11 at 54¢ · Oct 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- 9z · Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage$12 at 25¢ · Oct 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- PURE · Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs PURE (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group A$40 at 51¢ · Oct 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$96
- Acend · Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs$299 at 61¢ · Oct 7 · void · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Falcons Force · Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs SINQU (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group A$19 at 74¢ · Oct 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$35
- Legacy · Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage$1,140 at 57¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?$372 at 56.3¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$78
- Yes · Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 5?$265 at 81.2¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$23
- Spirit · Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage$473 at 63¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Legacy · Counter-Strike: Legacy vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage$420 at 56¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- PARIVISION · Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage$170 at 34¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- MOUZ · Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage$540 at 54¢ · Oct 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$85
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 55 settled bets.
18 more open bets
No · Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
$2,892 at 72.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 72.9¢ pays $137No · Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
$2,790 at 90¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90¢ pays $111Yes · US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?
$2,398 at 68.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 68.5¢ pays $146No · Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?
$1,912 at 88.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.5¢ pays $113No · Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?
$1,722 at 90.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.8¢ pays $110Yes · US imports Russian diesel by December 31?
$1,282 at 85.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85.5¢ pays $117No · Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
$1,127 at 89.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89.3¢ pays $112No · France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
$991 at 88.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.9¢ pays $112Yes · Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
$615 at 43.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 43.9¢ pays $228No · Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?
$312 at 89¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89¢ pays $112Yes · Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?
$299 at 41.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 41.6¢ pays $241Yes · Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 12?
$193 at 62.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 62.4¢ pays $160No · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
$155 at 35¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 35¢ pays $286Yes · Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8?
$142 at 67.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 67.7¢ pays $148No · Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?
$115 at 32¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 32¢ pays $313No · Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?
$101 at 14¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 14¢ pays $715Yes · Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
$76 at 1.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 1.5¢ pays $6,623No · Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?
$74 at 74¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74¢ pays $135
By topic · $100 →
- Politics38 bets$144
- Esports14 bets$86
- Tech2 bets$121
- NFL1 bets$323
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$3,796 · unrealized −$2,129 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 55 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $102.68 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (6 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x894df6e8ad9f01be25ea47e5733dde6dabfc04e2 · ← All whale receipts