No · Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
$20,690 at 80.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 80.6¢ pays $124
DumplingBMF0x8f69…7df1
Every $100 on their bets came back as $103.69 · 471 bets settled since May 29
Why verified
- 345 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $100.01 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 5 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (41 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 23:05 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $109last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
Yes · Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
$14,989 at 60.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 60.3¢ pays $166Yes · Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
$7,357 at 34.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 34.9¢ pays $286
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- No · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?$132 at 69¢ · Nov 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$45
- No · Will Russia capture Mykolaivka by October 31, 2026?$1,853 at 93.2¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$7
- No · Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026?$901 at 95.6¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31?$416 at 95.3¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $345left out of every figure—
- No · Will Russia enter Havrylivka by October 31, 2026?$345 at 99.6¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?$337 at 57¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$76
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $179left out of every figure—
- No · Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?$179 at 98.8¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?$724 at 72.6¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$38
- No · Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?$1,451 at 75.8¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$32
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $29left out of every figure—
- No · Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?$29 at 99.9¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yana Santos · UFC Fight Night: Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)$520 at 52¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani · UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Main Card)$874 at 87.4¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- Yes · Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?$344 at 37¢ · Oct 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$171
- Eternal Fire · Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Eternal Fire (BO5) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs$19 at 28.3¢ · Oct 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$253
- Eternal Fire · Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Eternal Fire - Map 4 Winner$1,054 at 50¢ · Oct 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$100
- Yes · Will MOUZ Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?$171 at 31.7¢ · Oct 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Vitality Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?$844 at 76¢ · Oct 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$32
- Eternal Fire · Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner$111 at 40¢ · Oct 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$150
- FaZe · Counter-Strike: FaZe vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Tesla Cup Playoffs$1,224 at 61.2¢ · Oct 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Eternal Fire · Counter-Strike: BIG vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner$857 at 42.9¢ · Oct 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$133
- Natus Vincere · Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner$38 at 58¢ · Oct 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$72
- fnatic · Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BIG - Map 2 Winner$10 at 41¢ · Oct 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$144
- Envy · Counter-Strike: Envy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group B$103 at 60¢ · Oct 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Astralis · Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs$1,360 at 54¢ · Oct 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Inner Circle Esports · Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)$247 at 37¢ · Oct 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$170
- Inner Circle Esports · Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs$8,338 at 61.5¢ · Oct 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$63
- Liquid · Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage$1,785 at 37.7¢ · Oct 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$289 at 71.5¢ · Oct 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$40
- DENDELE CS · Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs DENDELE CS (+1.5)$1,260 at 63¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$59
- Natus Vincere · Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner$1 at 55¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Liquid · Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner$271 at 43¢ · Oct 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$133
- paiN · Counter-Strike: paiN vs BESTIA (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba Playoffs$1,062 at 58¢ · Oct 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$72
- DENDELE CS · Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs DENDELE CS (+1.5)$2,448 at 56¢ · Oct 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Imperial · Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Imperial (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba Playoffs$24 at 61¢ · Oct 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$64
- Alexander Volkanovski · UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)$4,700 at 47¢ · Oct 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$113
- Nikita Krylov · UFC 333: Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)$162 at 18¢ · Oct 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Asaf Chopurov · UFC 333: Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)$158 at 79¢ · Oct 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Colby Thicknesse · UFC 333: Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)$42 at 21¢ · Oct 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$376
- 9z · Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)$2,100 at 42¢ · Oct 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Jacob Malkoun · UFC 333: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, Early Prelims)$259 at 35¢ · Oct 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Daniel Santos · UFC 333: Daniel Santos vs. Bolaji Oki (Featherweight, Early Prelims)$100 at 51¢ · Oct 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$96
- Sinners · Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner$474 at 50¢ · Oct 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- BakS eSports · Counter-Strike: Brute vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #11 Playoffs$147 at 59¢ · Oct 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- ex-RUSTEC · Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Saint Sinners (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Group Stage$11 at 70¢ · Oct 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$43
- Top Esports · LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage$440 at 22¢ · Oct 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Spirit Academy · Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Group Stage$408 at 68¢ · Oct 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- maybe · Counter-Strike: maybe vs Spirit Academy Green (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #9 Group C$509 at 78.6¢ · Oct 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$27
- Lavked · Counter-Strike: Lavked vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Group Stage$510 at 51.6¢ · Oct 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$94
- TheMongolz · Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TheMongolz - Map 3 Winner$1,200 at 47¢ · Oct 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$113
- TheMongolz · Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner$2,650 at 53¢ · Oct 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$89
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 471 settled bets.
45 more open bets
Yes · Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?
$5,488 at 54.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 54.5¢ pays $183Yes · Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
$3,288 at 44.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 44.7¢ pays $224No · Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
$3,009 at 66.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 66.9¢ pays $149Yes · Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?
$2,617 at 51.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 51.8¢ pays $193Yes · Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?
$2,253 at 49.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 49.8¢ pays $201No · Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?
$1,898 at 92.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.8¢ pays $108Yes · Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
$1,274 at 58.4¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 58.4¢ pays $171Yes · Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?
$1,230 at 16.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 16.6¢ pays $601No · Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026?
$1,052 at 46.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 46.6¢ pays $215Yes · Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
$821 at 49.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 49.2¢ pays $203Yes · Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?
$675 at 82.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82.6¢ pays $121No · Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
$649 at 63.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 63.3¢ pays $158No · Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31?
$541 at 91.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.9¢ pays $109No · Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by December 31, 2026?
$488 at 72.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 72.9¢ pays $137Yes · Will Russia enter Bilozerske by December 31, 2026?
$471 at 28.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 28.5¢ pays $350No · Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?
$449 at 90.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.6¢ pays $110No · Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?
$397 at 49.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 49.8¢ pays $201No · Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2026?
$340 at 85¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85¢ pays $118No · Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
$321 at 64.2¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 64.2¢ pays $156Yes · Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
$305 at 68¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 68¢ pays $147No · Will Russia capture Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026?
$291 at 76.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 76.5¢ pays $131No · Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by December 31, 2026?
$253 at 87.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87.1¢ pays $115Yes · Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
$250 at 50¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50¢ pays $200No · Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?
$240 at 74¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74¢ pays $135No · US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
$236 at 78.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 78.7¢ pays $127Yes · Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by December 31, 2026?
$194 at 14.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 14.8¢ pays $675No · Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
$172 at 86¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86¢ pays $116No · Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
$171 at 85.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85.7¢ pays $117No · Will Russia enter Havrylivka by December 31, 2026?
$170 at 94¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94¢ pays $106No · Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
$164 at 82¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82¢ pays $122No · Elon Musk meets with Putin by March 31, 2027?
$157 at 81.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 81.4¢ pays $123Yes · Will Diego Lopes become UFC champion in 2026?
$122 at 11¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 11¢ pays $909No · Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?
$122 at 96.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.6¢ pays $104Yes · Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
$118 at 59¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 59¢ pays $169No · Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?
$102 at 51¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 51¢ pays $196No · Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
$89 at 55¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 55¢ pays $182No · Will Marcin Tybura be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
$54 at 81¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 81¢ pays $123No · Elon Musk meets with Putin by December 31, 2026?
$52 at 90.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.5¢ pays $110Yes · Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?
$30 at 11.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 11.8¢ pays $850No · Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?
$22 at 55¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 55¢ pays $182No · Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?
$19 at 75¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 75¢ pays $133No · Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
$17 at 82¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82¢ pays $122No · Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?
$12 at 39¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 39¢ pays $256No · Will Ian Machado Garry be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
$9 at 87¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87¢ pays $115No · Will Curtis Blaydes be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
$6 at 71.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71.9¢ pays $139
By topic · $100 →
- Esports336 bets$105
- Politics51 bets$109
- MMA29 bets$82
- Other29 bets$113
- Soccer20 bets$87
- Economy3 bets$117
- Sports3 bets$126
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$702,196 · unrealized −$21,958 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 345 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $100.01 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 5 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (41 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 23:05 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x8f69269039b9a401de28a38c2f1c3001364b7df1 · ← All whale receipts