Yes · Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 30%-35%?
$400 at 20¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 20¢ pays $500
Istaroth0x9efd…ad00
Every $100 on their bets came back as $95.08 · 1,087 bets settled since Jan 28
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 1058 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $90.10 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Last fill 4 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (198 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC.
Best at Economy · $100 → $121last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
Yes · Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-06 House election by 15%-20%?
$387 at 19.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 19.7¢ pays $508Yes · Will Paulinho (Toluca) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Liga MX season?
$362 at 18.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 18.1¢ pays $552
Watch in this browserWatch in Telegram (opens in a new tab)
Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- Yes · Will IMAX (IMAX) beat quarterly earnings?$12 at 62¢ · Nov 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$61
- No · Gemini Carbon released by November 4, 2026?$21 at 88¢ · Nov 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- No · Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%?$2 at 32¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?$3 at 15.1¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Republicans win Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio?$3 at 7¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Republican Party win the MI-04 House seat?$68 at 63¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$59
- No · Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?$187 at 38.1¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?$73 at 32¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?$21 at 32.4¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?$172 at 65.9¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$52
- No · Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?$10 at 86¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- Yes · Will Heather Jefts win the 2026 Williamson County Judge election?$67 at 60.5¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$65
- Yes · Will the Republicans win Collin County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?$6 at 31¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Democrats win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?$51 at 34.1¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?$11 at 56¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$79
- Yes · McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 1% to 2%?$37 at 58.3¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$72
- No · CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 92% to 93.5%?$10 at 80¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$25
- Yes · Will Democrats win the Iowa and Kansas Senate seats, and Republicans win Nebraska?$13 at 33¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$203
- No · Will Democrats win the Ohio Senate seat, and Republicans win Texas?$48 at 91.6¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- No · Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?$1,388 at 69.2¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$44
- Yes · Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?$528 at 26.5¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will AP call US House control by November 4, 3:59 AM?$16 at 80¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$25
- No · Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?$29 at 61¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?$59 at 40¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$150
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?$287 at 41¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$144
- No · Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat?$19 at 21.5¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?$5 at 83¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$20
- Yes · Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?$9 at 18¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on November 3?$24 at 60¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$67
- No · Will the Republican Party win the TX-34 House seat?$297 at 85.3¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- Yes · Will the Republicans win Greenville County in the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?$24 at 64.8¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on November 3?$39 at 67.9¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$47
- No · Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?$17 at 87¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
- Yes · Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?$2 at 14¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$74 at 73.8¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$36
- No · Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on November 3?$41 at 81¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.0M and 7.1M in September?$4 at 12¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin before the midterms?$17 at 33¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$203
- No · Will "Phantom Blade Zero" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?$16 at 77¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$30
- Yes · Will "Phantom Blade Zero" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?$11 at 33.6¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth -0.5% to 0.5%?$64 at 63.6¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth -0.5% to 0.5%?$7 at 36¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$178
- No · Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?$15 at 85.3¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$17
- Yes · Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?$3 at 4.5¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 2, 2026?$6 at 11¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- El-Sayed · Michigan Senate favorite on November 2?$38 at 94.7¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- No · Will Daniel Mullen win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election?$15 at 74¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$35
- Yes · Will Tencent have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?$6 at 11¢ · Nov 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?$17 at 76¢ · Nov 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$32
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $18left out of every figure—
- No · Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?$18 at 98¢ · Nov 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 1,087 settled bets.
29 more open bets
Yes · Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KS-03 House election by 10%-15%?
$339 at 17.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 17.5¢ pays $571No · Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-03 House election by 35%-40%?
$335 at 83.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 83.7¢ pays $119No · Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-18 House election by 5%-10%?
$293 at 77¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 77¢ pays $130Yes · Will Payton Pritchard win the 2026-27 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?
$274 at 28¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 28¢ pays $357No · Will Ruler win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?
$228 at 91.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.9¢ pays $109No · Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?
$219 at 61.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 61.2¢ pays $163No · Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on November 2?
$202 at 40.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 40.4¢ pays $247No · Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 2?
$171 at 51.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 51.6¢ pays $194No · Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon Senate election by 10%-15%?
$165 at 84.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.8¢ pays $118Yes · Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?
$149 at 57¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 57¢ pays $175Yes · Will Cincinnati Bengals advance to the Divisional Round in the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
$148 at 48¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 48¢ pays $208No · Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on November 2?
$147 at 65.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 65.2¢ pays $153No · Will Yoram Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?
$136 at 87.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87.9¢ pays $114No · Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-07 House election by 30% or more?
$136 at 86.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86.7¢ pays $115No · Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 2?
$133 at 84.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.5¢ pays $118Yes · Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on November 2?
$131 at 29.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 29.7¢ pays $337No · Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 2?
$127 at 39.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 39.5¢ pays $253Yes · Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?
$121 at 59.6¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 59.6¢ pays $168Yes · Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on November 2?
$113 at 11.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 11.4¢ pays $875No · Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?
$113 at 43¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 43¢ pays $233No · Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election by 40%-45%?
$110 at 78.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 78.7¢ pays $127Yes · Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?
$110 at 53.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 53.3¢ pays $188Yes · Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on November 2?
$107 at 13.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 13.2¢ pays $758No · Will Tomáš Chovanec be the next Mayor of České Budějovice?
$107 at 53.4¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 53.4¢ pays $187Yes · Israel military action against Syria by December 31, 2026?
$105 at 53¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 53¢ pays $189No · Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-02 House election by 25%-30%?
$89 at 88.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.9¢ pays $112Yes · Will "Sense and Sensibility" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?
$80 at 40¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 40¢ pays $250No · Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-04 House election by 15%-25%?
$80 at 84¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84¢ pays $119No · Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on November 2?
$79 at 79.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79.7¢ pays $126
By topic · $100 →
- Weather457 bets$93
- Politics217 bets$101
- Other189 bets$91
- Tech96 bets$111
- Culture53 bets$78
- Economy33 bets$121
- Crypto28 bets$81
- Esports5 bets$56
- Sports4 bets$28
- Soccer3 bets$128
- NFL2 bets$0
Polymarket’s own figures: realized −$357,425 · unrealized −$2,632 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 1058 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $90.10 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Last fill 4 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (198 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x9efda3d6354152901fc4706c3b1a9ce50b45ad00 · ← All whale receipts