No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
$29,346 at 95.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.2¢ pays $105
SAPolitcsSeer0xa30e…49d5
Every $100 on their bets came back as $97.70 · 64 bets settled since Apr 8
Why verified
- 37 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $103.18 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 7 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (43 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 23:05 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $98last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
Yes · Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
$7,005 at 75¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 75¢ pays $133Yes · Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
$6,301 at 78.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 78.8¢ pays $127
Watch in this browserWatch in Telegram (opens in a new tab)
Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- Yes · Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?$1,443 at 93¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- Yes · Will the Democrats win Broward County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?$2,060 at 93.9¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$85,128 at 86.9¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the NV-01 House seat?$2,181 at 95.5¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat?$2,972 at 95.1¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?$15,437 at 92¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?$1,890 at 70¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$43
- No · Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?$30,012 at 95¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?$18,789 at 94¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026?$7,482 at 93.6¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$7
- Yes · Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?$11,140 at 94.8¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?$5,032 at 83.9¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$19
- Yes · Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?$7,089 at 95¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?$1,678 at 95¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?$5,656 at 92¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?$975 at 65¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$54
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the NH-02 House seat?$5,088 at 96¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- No · Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?$71,435 at 91.7¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $23,387left out of every figure—
- No · Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?$23,387 at 98.1¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?$21,934 at 83.3¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$20
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $43,026left out of every figure—
- No · Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?$23,657 at 98.7¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?$19,369 at 97.9¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?$12,571 at 94.6¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?$2,016 at 72¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$39
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?$11,265 at 94.2¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?$942 at 95.8¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- Yes · Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?$11,534 at 92.7¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?$7,457 at 95¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?$18,968 at 94.4¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?$14,697 at 90.7¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- No · Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?$18,665 at 94.5¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?$7,600 at 94.9¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$6,080 at 95¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
5 bets at 97¢ or more · $103,065left out of every figure—
- No · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$20,387 at 97.1¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$24,554 at 98.2¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$39,245 at 98.8¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?$9,102 at 97¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?$9,777 at 99.1¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$3,024 at 48¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$12,796 at 96.6¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $9,450left out of every figure—
- No · Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?$2,272 at 99¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$7,178 at 97¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- Yes · Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$2,513 at 93¢ · Aug 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $14,849left out of every figure—
- No · Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?$14,849 at 99¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?$5,181 at 90.7¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$9,994 at 88.9¢ · Aug 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
- Yes · Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$376 at 94.7¢ · Aug 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- No · Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$9,692 at 96.3¢ · Aug 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $13,504left out of every figure—
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?$4,359 at 98.3¢ · Aug 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?$9,145 at 98.4¢ · Aug 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 64 settled bets.
6 more open bets
Yes · Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
$4,994 at 94.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.2¢ pays $106Yes · Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
$1,993 at 57.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 57.8¢ pays $173No · Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?
$1,433 at 92.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.2¢ pays $108No · Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%?
$551 at 95.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.5¢ pays $105No · Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-01 House election by 6% or more?
$188 at 90.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.1¢ pays $111Yes · Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
$160 at 3.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 3.3¢ pays $3,021
By topic · $100 →
- Politics63 bets$98
- Soccer1 bets$103
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$70,082 · unrealized +$14,273 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 37 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $103.18 back per $100 — above $100
- Last fill 7 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (43 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 23:05 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0xa30e451354cb41cfd46689a065defed989ea49d5 · ← All whale receipts