Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
$55,152 at 85.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85.8¢ pays $116
betwick0xc851…cd2a
Every $100 on their bets came back as $98.13 · 241 bets settled since Sep 17
Not verified yet — 28 of 30 settled bets
- 28 of 30 settled bets in the last 90 days
- Cautious estimate: $84.56 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (28 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 13:37 UTC.
Best at Culture · $100 → $144last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
$41,283 at 61.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 61.7¢ pays $162Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
$37,660 at 49.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 49.6¢ pays $202
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- Yes · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$228 at 30¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$233
- No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$45,221 at 43.4¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$86,698 at 62.1¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$61
- No · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$22,325 at 48.3¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$107
- Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$13,277 at 75¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1,396 at 0.6¢ · Sep 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?$20,663 at 31.4¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$13,219 at 76¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$32
- Yes · Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$4,519 at 10¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?$2,655 at 23.8¢ · Aug 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$321
- No · US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?$6,285 at 31¢ · Aug 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$223
- No · US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?$5,703 at 11.1¢ · Aug 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$800
- Yes · US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$600 at 14¢ · Aug 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$48,236 at 65.3¢ · Aug 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$53
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$60,266 at 73.1¢ · Aug 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$37
- No · Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$27,827 at 69.6¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$44
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$17,580 at 77¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$30
- Yes · Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?$123 at 12.2¢ · Jul 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$15,218 at 76¢ · Jul 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$32
- Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$61,935 at 24.3¢ · Jul 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$201 at 14¢ · Jul 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?$325 at 26¢ · Jul 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$285
- Yes · Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$3,387 at 39.6¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$3,592 at 15.5¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$58,117 at 12.1¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$6,596 at 62.9¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$59
- Yes · Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$6,057 at 21.8¢ · Jul 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$4,651 at 70.3¢ · Jul 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?$2,434 at 62.1¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$61
- Yes · Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?$20 at 29¢ · Jul 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?$3,300 at 33¢ · Jun 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$49,253 at 63.1¢ · Jun 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?$3,000 at 32¢ · Jun 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$213
- Yes · US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$10,159 at 14¢ · Jun 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$614
- Yes · US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$619 at 38.1¢ · Jun 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$162
- Yes · US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$1,970 at 5¢ · Jun 8 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$80,808 at 73.1¢ · Jun 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$37
- Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$10,633 at 10¢ · Jun 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$9,538 at 28.2¢ · Jun 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Starmer out by May 31, 2026?$32,271 at 67.4¢ · Jun 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$48
- No · Starmer out by May 15, 2026?$36,986 at 71.7¢ · May 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$39
- Yes · US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?$31,095 at 9.5¢ · May 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$862 at 54.7¢ · May 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $1,663left out of every figure—
- Yes · Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$1,663 at 98.6¢ · May 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?$1,001 at 24.1¢ · May 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$53,515 at 21.4¢ · May 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?$732 at 66¢ · May 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$52
- Yes · Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$1,629 at 3.3¢ · May 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?$2,290 at 74.5¢ · May 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$34
- Yes · US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$1,839 at 0.75¢ · May 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 241 settled bets.
23 more open bets
Yes · Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
$28,696 at 71.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71.7¢ pays $140No · US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
$24,739 at 12.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 12.1¢ pays $829Yes · Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
$23,033 at 50.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50.5¢ pays $198No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
$15,989 at 85¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85¢ pays $118No · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
$13,364 at 51¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 51¢ pays $196Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
$12,200 at 61¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 61¢ pays $164No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
$6,873 at 32.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 32.1¢ pays $311Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$4,052 at 75¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 75¢ pays $133Yes · Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?
$3,635 at 9.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 9.7¢ pays $1,028Yes · OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$3,569 at 16.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 16.8¢ pays $595Yes · NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
$3,174 at 27.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 27.2¢ pays $368Yes · NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
$2,966 at 14.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 14.8¢ pays $675Yes · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
$2,964 at 9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 9¢ pays $1,111Yes · Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
$2,508 at 15.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 15.2¢ pays $657Yes · Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
$1,972 at 20.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 20.9¢ pays $477Yes · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
$1,877 at 18.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 18.9¢ pays $528No · Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
$1,629 at 71¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71¢ pays $141Yes · Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
$1,578 at 17.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 17.3¢ pays $577Yes · Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
$661 at 34.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 34.6¢ pays $289Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
$59 at 0.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 0.9¢ pays $11,111Yes · Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?
$29 at 49¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 49¢ pays $204Yes · Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
$0 at 40.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 40.3¢ pays $248Yes · Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
$0 at 12.2¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 12.2¢ pays $818
By topic · $100 →
- Other134 bets$89
- Politics41 bets$122
- Tech22 bets$93
- Culture20 bets$144
- Economy15 bets$68
- Crypto5 bets$73
- Soccer2 bets$156
- Sports2 bets$58
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$1,103,890 · unrealized −$60,253 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Not verified yet — 28 of 30 settled bets
- 28 of 30 settled bets in the last 90 days
- Cautious estimate: $84.56 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (28 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 13:37 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0xc851cd9bee7d262afd78674f861f9f576a12cd2a · ← All whale receipts