No · US recession by end of 2026?
$8,860 at 88.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.5¢ pays $113
Ahpo0xcdb1…276c
Every $100 on their bets came back as $125.02 · 91 bets settled since Aug 5
Why verified
- 91 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $103.64 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (84 left out). Checked 2026-10-02 13:56 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $137last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
$3,648 at 96.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.4¢ pays $104No · AI bubble burst in 2026?
$2,247 at 82.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82.2¢ pays $122
Watch in this browserWatch in Telegram (opens in a new tab)
Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- No · Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$16 at 43.8¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$128
- No · Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?$378 at 72.2¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$38
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $202left out of every figure—
- No · Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?$202 at 97¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- Yes · Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?$51 at 16.7¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?$193 at 56¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$78
- Yes · Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?$36 at 33.8¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?$4,328 at 94.9¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$190 at 93.6¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$7
- Yes · Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$842 at 60.9¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?$331 at 96¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $140left out of every figure—
- No · Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?$140 at 99.2¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?$2,917 at 32¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?$109 at 91¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$7,599 at 90.2¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$842 at 39¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
3 bets at 97¢ or more · $1,744left out of every figure—
- No · Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?$369 at 98.7¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?$5 at 97¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?$1,370 at 98.3¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?$1,180 at 95¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?$414 at 69.8¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$43
- Yes · US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?$15 at 77¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$30
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $1,253left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September 2026?$1,253 at 99.5¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?$96 at 95.7¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?$11 at 91¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- No · Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?$2,650 at 88.5¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$13
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $44,607left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?$28,825 at 99.7¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$15,781 at 99.9¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$3,504 at 95.4¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?$858 at 63.9¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$56
- Yes · Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?$335 at 27.6¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
3 bets at 97¢ or more · $1,513left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Trump praise Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?$69 at 99.9¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will Trump meet with Jens-Frederik Nielsen by September 30, 2026?$287 at 99.8¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will there be no next Claude Opus model release by September 30, 2026?$1,157 at 99.9¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?$171 at 67.7¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$48
3 bets at 97¢ or more · $640left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Trump meet with Mette Frederiksen by September 30, 2026?$231 at 99.8¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in September?$68 at 99¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?$341 at 99.1¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?$165 at 27¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?$52 at 76.9¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$30
- No · Israel closes its airspace by September 30?$2,188 at 90.8¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Israel closes its airspace by September 30?$327 at 9.1¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1,004
- No · Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?$68 at 84.2¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?$15 at 76¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$32
- No · Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be less than 82%?$72 at 60¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$67
- No · Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in September?$16 at 39¢ · Sep 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?$69 at 94.1¢ · Sep 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?$1,491 at 61.1¢ · Sep 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?$213 at 38¢ · Sep 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$163
- Yes · Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$7 at 27.8¢ · Sep 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats?$1,418 at 63.2¢ · Sep 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$58
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 91 settled bets.
28 more open bets
No · Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
$1,928 at 95.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.9¢ pays $104No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$1,663 at 83.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 83.2¢ pays $120No · Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
$1,324 at 72.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 72.7¢ pays $138No · Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?
$968 at 96.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.8¢ pays $103No · Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
$925 at 92.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.5¢ pays $108No · Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?
$754 at 95.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.9¢ pays $104No · Databricks IPO before 2027?
$733 at 86¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86¢ pays $116Yes · Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
$585 at 77.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 77.7¢ pays $129Yes · Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
$389 at 54¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 54¢ pays $185No · Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?
$271 at 84.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.9¢ pays $118Yes · Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
$255 at 88.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.6¢ pays $113No · Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
$243 at 91¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91¢ pays $110No · Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?
$233 at 95.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.7¢ pays $104No · Mistral AI IPO before 2027?
$139 at 90.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.4¢ pays $111No · Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
$125 at 74.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74.6¢ pays $134No · Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31?
$104 at 87.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87.8¢ pays $114No · Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?
$70 at 53.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 53.3¢ pays $188No · Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?
$68 at 96.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.7¢ pays $103No · Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?
$53 at 71¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71¢ pays $141Yes · Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
$46 at 92¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109No · Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?
$44 at 93.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.9¢ pays $106No · Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September?
$44 at 92.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.4¢ pays $108No · Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
$42 at 96¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96¢ pays $104No · Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?
$32 at 90.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.6¢ pays $110No · Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
$29 at 85¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85¢ pays $118No · Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?
$20 at 82.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82.1¢ pays $122No · Will Markus Allard be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County?
$13 at 93¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93¢ pays $108No · Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?
$6 at 20.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 20.9¢ pays $477
By topic · $100 →
- Politics67 bets$137
- Other9 bets$65
- Tech7 bets$98
- Economy6 bets$127
- Crypto2 bets$89
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$130,262 · unrealized +$1,091 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 91 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $103.64 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (84 left out). Checked 2026-10-02 13:56 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0xcdb1f1ef8213c06911e4ba6a884176c5571e276c · ← All whale receipts