No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
$18,455 at 80.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 80.2¢ pays $125
sabsabinxz0xd3ec…6603
Every $100 on their bets came back as $119.47 · 88 bets settled since Mar 15
Why verified
- 32 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $102.08 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (1 left out). Checked 2026-10-18 08:20 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $119last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
$13,212 at 84.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.7¢ pays $118No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
$10,605 at 79¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79¢ pays $127
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$14,087 at 77.8¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$28
- No · Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?$113 at 92.6¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- No · Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?$126 at 94¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- No · Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?$255 at 74¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$35
- No · Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?$67 at 56.8¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$76
- Yes · Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?$280 at 46.3¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$116
- No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$16,267 at 87.5¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- Yes · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$22 at 10¢ · Oct 6 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30?$1,362 at 93.7¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$7
- No · US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?$1,838 at 82.8¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$21
- No · Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?$3,097 at 84¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$19
- No · Will Russia enter Borova by September 30?$249 at 93.7¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$7
- No · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?$3,440 at 86¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- No · Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 21-September 27?$129 at 83.5¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$20
- No · Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 21-September 27?$8 at 75¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$33
- Yes · Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?$127 at 31.3¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $194left out of every figure—
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?$194 at 97¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?$381 at 79.5¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$26
- No · Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?$427 at 69¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$45
- Yes · Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 30, 2026?$397 at 78¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$28
- No · Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 19, 2026? (copy)$253 at 94¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 19, 2026? (copy)$227 at 32.1¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?$3,102 at 89.9¢ · Sep 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$38,398 at 87.3¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$15
- No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$9,806 at 83.7¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$19
- No · Will Houthis target Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?$26 at 53¢ · Sep 8 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$89
- No · Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by September 30, 2026?$533 at 76.1¢ · Sep 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30?$592 at 81¢ · Sep 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$24
- No · US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?$303 at 95.4¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$3,667 at 89.6¢ · Aug 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$12
- No · Will there be between 34 and 36 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?$97 at 84.2¢ · Aug 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$19
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$37,974 at 60.6¢ · Aug 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$65
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$21,634 at 60.7¢ · Jul 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$65
- Yes · Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?$289 at 81.7¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$3,780 at 75.2¢ · Jul 17 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$33
- No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$23,783 at 69.7¢ · Jul 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$44
- No · Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$1,479 at 71¢ · Jun 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$6,379 at 54.9¢ · Jun 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$82
- No · Starmer out by July 31, 2026?$525 at 45.8¢ · Jun 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Starmer out by July 31, 2026?$829 at 48.4¢ · Jun 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$107
- Yes · Starmer out by June 24, 2026?$255 at 88.9¢ · Jun 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$12
- Yes · Starmer out by June 25, 2026?$99 at 90¢ · Jun 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- Yes · Starmer out by June 23, 2026?$230 at 80.2¢ · Jun 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$25
- Yes · Starmer out by June 26, 2026?$2,257 at 54.1¢ · Jun 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$85
- Yes · Starmer out by June 22, 2026?$649 at 63.3¢ · Jun 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$58
- Yes · Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?$675 at 50.9¢ · Jun 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$5,863 at 83.2¢ · Jun 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$20
- No · US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$3,269 at 72.7¢ · Jun 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$5,769 at 64.1¢ · Jun 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$18,357 at 81¢ · Jun 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 88 settled bets.
33 more open bets
No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
$10,389 at 85.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85.3¢ pays $117Yes · Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
$8,655 at 86.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86.6¢ pays $116Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
$7,776 at 63.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 63.7¢ pays $157No · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
$6,087 at 90.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.5¢ pays $111No · UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
$5,332 at 87.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87.5¢ pays $114No · Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?
$3,652 at 76.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 76.6¢ pays $130No · Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
$3,353 at 90.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.2¢ pays $111No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
$3,010 at 86¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86¢ pays $116No · Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
$2,995 at 78.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 78.2¢ pays $128No · 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?
$1,623 at 85.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85.4¢ pays $117No · Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?
$1,416 at 80.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 80.6¢ pays $124No · China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
$1,082 at 93.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93.6¢ pays $107No · China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
$906 at 71.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 71.9¢ pays $139No · Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
$762 at 95.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.5¢ pays $105No · Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?
$660 at 88¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88¢ pays $114No · Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?
$446 at 92¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109Yes · Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
$414 at 81¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 81¢ pays $123Yes · Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026?
$403 at 24.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 24.3¢ pays $412Yes · Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?
$371 at 26¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 26¢ pays $384Yes · Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
$232 at 51.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 51.9¢ pays $193Yes · Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?
$200 at 58.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 58.4¢ pays $171No · Will C3.ai announce bankruptcy before 2027?
$192 at 91¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91¢ pays $110No · Will Lovable announce bankruptcy before 2027?
$128 at 95.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.2¢ pays $105Yes · Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
$100 at 52.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 52.4¢ pays $191No · UBS announces move out of Switzerland by June 30, 2027?
$99 at 77¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 77¢ pays $130Yes · Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026?
$80 at 16¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 16¢ pays $625No · Will Lucid announce bankruptcy before 2027?
$72 at 89.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89.7¢ pays $112No · Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
$67 at 90¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90¢ pays $111No · UBS announces move out of Switzerland by December 31?
$43 at 78¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 78¢ pays $128Yes · Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?
$40 at 31¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 31¢ pays $323Yes · Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
$34 at 8.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 8.6¢ pays $1,164Yes · Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?
$24 at 11.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 11.5¢ pays $867Yes · 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?
$6 at 18¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 18¢ pays $556
By topic · $100 →
- Politics88 bets$119
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$93,799 · unrealized +$6,924 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 32 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $102.08 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (1 left out). Checked 2026-10-18 08:20 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0xd3ecb2aee0d65622da559ff356b00e8c2e626603 · ← All whale receipts