No · Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
$221,936 at 83.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 83.5¢ pays $120
aff30xe52c…6924
Every $100 on their bets came back as $102.69 · 207 bets settled since Jun 3
Why verified
- 41 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $100.71 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (53 left out). Checked 2026-10-13 03:19 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $104last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
$155,894 at 88.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.4¢ pays $113Yes · Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$50,229 at 88.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.3¢ pays $113
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- No · Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$383 at 93¢ · Oct 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- No · Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$92 at 92¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- No · Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$1,872 at 96.6¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- No · Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$3,720 at 90.6¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- Yes · Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$9,155 at 90.2¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- No · Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's US Open?$4,183 at 95.8¢ · Sep 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- No · Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s US Open?$12,152 at 96.6¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$966 at 92¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- Ben Shelton · US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz$1,616 at 59¢ · Sep 9 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$69
- No · Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's US Open?$22,474 at 96.3¢ · Sep 8 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- No · Will AfD win 34-37 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$2,982 at 94.7¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- No · Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$4,474 at 83.6¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$20
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $20,771left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$20,771 at 97.5¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?$73 at 82¢ · Sep 7 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$22
- No · Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?$6,745 at 94.5¢ · Sep 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Jessica Pegula · US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Fernandez$1,100 at 55¢ · Sep 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$82
- Aryna Sabalenka · US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Kamilla Rakhimova$264 at 96.9¢ · Sep 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?$174 at 94¢ · Sep 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $11,765left out of every figure—
- No · Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open?$7,217 at 97.4¢ · Sep 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$4,548 at 97.2¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?$5,549 at 91.6¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
3 bets at 97¢ or more · $43,623left out of every figure—
- No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$24,371 at 98¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?$15,742 at 97.6¢ · Sep 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?$3,510 at 97.5¢ · Aug 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?$15,292 at 93.8¢ · Aug 31 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$7
- Yes · Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 30, 2026?$344 at 82¢ · Aug 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$22
- No · Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22?$9,309 at 93¢ · Aug 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- No · Will Hull City AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?$4,084 at 91¢ · Aug 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $5,053left out of every figure—
- No · Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-22?$1,806 at 97.2¢ · Aug 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?$3,247 at 98.8¢ · Aug 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$6,846 at 90.8¢ · Aug 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- Yes · Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$3,136 at 89.4¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$12
- No · Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?$44,811 at 96.7¢ · Aug 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · Israel closes its airspace by August 15?$11,093 at 91.7¢ · Aug 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- No · Iran full airspace closure by August 15?$4,568 at 94.8¢ · Aug 16 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$11,605 at 94.1¢ · Aug 14 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?$1,086 at 96.9¢ · Aug 13 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$1,115 at 61¢ · Aug 12 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$64
- No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?$247 at 96.4¢ · Aug 8 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $796left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$358 at 98.2¢ · Aug 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$438 at 97.4¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$2,896 at 95¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$29,255 at 91¢ · Aug 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$5,637 at 93.3¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$7
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $287,384left out of every figure—
- No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$287,384 at 99.3¢ · Jul 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$6,059 at 95.7¢ · Jul 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?$3,413 at 93.5¢ · Jul 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$7
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $6,232left out of every figure—
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?$6,232 at 99.9¢ · Jul 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4,051 at 22¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$9,908 at 8.6¢ · Jul 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 207 settled bets.
11 more open bets
No · Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
$17,668 at 95.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95.8¢ pays $104No · Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?
$13,021 at 92.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.5¢ pays $108No · Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
$5,958 at 84.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.8¢ pays $118No · Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
$3,106 at 85¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85¢ pays $118No · Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?
$2,598 at 92¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109No · Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
$1,790 at 90¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90¢ pays $111No · Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
$1,694 at 96¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96¢ pays $104Yes · Will SPD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
$453 at 96.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.2¢ pays $104No · Will SPD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
$143 at 86¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86¢ pays $116Yes · Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$27 at 53¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 53¢ pays $189No · Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
$0 at 92.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.1¢ pays $109
By topic · $100 →
- Politics133 bets$104
- Soccer34 bets$93
- Tennis21 bets$94
- Other6 bets$110
- Sports5 bets$152
- Culture3 bets$78
- Tech2 bets$130
- Crypto1 bets$105
- Economy1 bets$133
- NBA1 bets$110
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$257,222 · unrealized +$40,683 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 41 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $100.71 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (53 left out). Checked 2026-10-13 03:19 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0xe52c0a1327a12edc7bd54ea6f37ce00a4ca96924 · ← All whale receipts