No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$93,808 at 84.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.8¢ pays $118
0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e…0xff1e…5e2d
Every $100 on their bets came back as $117.82 · 39 bets settled since Aug 31
Why verified
- 39 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $109.70 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (386 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 13:37 UTC.
last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
$31,665 at 91.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.7¢ pays $109Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
$20,876 at 84.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.5¢ pays $118
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $357left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Trump praise Elon Musk in September?$93 at 98¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will Trump's remarks at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium not air?$265 at 97.6¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 25?$136 at 78.9¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$27
3 bets at 97¢ or more · $689left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Fabio Roscioli win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election?$355 at 99.9¢ · Sep 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% in September?$328 at 99.9¢ · Sep 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will Trump say "Invest" or "Invested" or "Investment" during his announcement?$5 at 99.9¢ · Sep 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?$9,352 at 83.4¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$20
7 bets at 97¢ or more · $16,650left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 26, 2026?$302 at 99.7¢ · Sep 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Israel military action against Lebanon on September 26?$2,912 at 99.6¢ · Sep 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Israel military action against Lebanon on September 25?$1,135 at 98.7¢ · Sep 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?$135 at 99¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in September?$6,382 at 99.9¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in September?$656 at 97.4¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- Yes · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?$5,128 at 97.7¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?$10,368 at 95.7¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?$4,951 at 92.1¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
5 bets at 97¢ or more · $2,458left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 3, 2026?$478 at 97.9¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?$993 at 99.9¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?$330 at 99.9¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?$42 at 99.9¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- HC Kladno · ELH: HC Kladno vs. Sparta Prague$614 at 99.9¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by December 31?$541 at 94.1¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by October 31?$366 at 93.8¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$7
9 bets at 97¢ or more · $4,172left out of every figure—
- No · Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 18?$959 at 99¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Israel military action against Lebanon on September 22?$1,697 at 97.6¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?$988 at 99.9¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Shintaro Mochizuki · Set Handicap: Pavel Kotov (-1.5) vs Shintaro Mochizuki (+1.5)$13 at 98¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 22?$129 at 98.3¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 24?$266 at 99.5¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will Connor Wood be eliminated in week 2 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?$40 at 99.9¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Jenna Dewan be eliminated in week 2 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?$40 at 99.9¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Julia Stiles be eliminated in week 2 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?$40 at 99.9¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Trump say "North Korea" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?$15 at 65¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$54
- No · Will Trump say "Data Center" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?$307 at 83.9¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$19
- No · Will Trump say "Favorite Word" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?$585 at 73.7¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$36
- No · Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?$691 at 96.8¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $4,351left out of every figure—
- Yes · Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?$14 at 99.9¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will no qualifying United Nations meeting or event occur?$4,337 at 99.9¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?$162 at 85¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
- Yes · Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?$3,261 at 93.7¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$7
- Yes · Will Trump say "Bully" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?$44 at 63.3¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$58
- Yes · Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?$439 at 78.6¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$27
8 bets at 97¢ or more · $59,664left out of every figure—
- No · Will Trump's remarks not air?$528 at 99.9¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?$4,038 at 99.9¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?$40,333 at 97¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- Yes · Israel military action against Lebanon on September 21?$770 at 99.7¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?$13,055 at 99.5¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will AfD win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$391 at 99.7¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will CDU win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$114 at 99.9¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will SPD win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$436 at 99.7¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 39 settled bets.
20 more open bets
No · NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
$14,436 at 80.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 80.4¢ pays $124Yes · Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
$13,469 at 84.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.1¢ pays $119No · Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?
$7,342 at 89.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89.5¢ pays $112No · US recession by end of 2026?
$6,664 at 80.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 80.5¢ pays $124No · NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
$5,560 at 69.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 69.5¢ pays $144No · Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?
$4,586 at 79¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79¢ pays $127No · Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?
$4,331 at 87.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87.4¢ pays $114Yes · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
$3,800 at 95¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95¢ pays $105No · Trump and Pezeshkian meet by September 30?
$3,538 at 95¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 95¢ pays $105No · US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$3,009 at 43.9¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 43.9¢ pays $228Yes · Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?
$2,947 at 74.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74.2¢ pays $135Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
$1,441 at 96.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.1¢ pays $104No · Trump insults Anthropic CEO this week?
$800 at 96.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.7¢ pays $103Yes · Will Trump say "NVIDIA" in September?
$692 at 88.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88.3¢ pays $113No · OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$525 at 73.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 73.8¢ pays $135No · Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?
$345 at 82.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82.2¢ pays $122No · Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by September 30, 2026?
$249 at 84¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84¢ pays $119No · Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by September 30, 2026?
$192 at 68.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 68.6¢ pays $146Yes · Trump renames AI by December 31?
$8 at 90¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90¢ pays $111Yes · Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?
$7 at 15.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 15.6¢ pays $640
By topic · $100 →
- Politics19 bets$107
- Other12 bets$131
- Tech5 bets$132
- Crypto2 bets$103
- Sports1 bets$127
Polymarket’s own figures: realized −$495 · unrealized +$11,633 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 39 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $109.70 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (386 left out). Checked 2026-09-30 13:37 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2d · ← All whale receipts