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Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?

9¢+1011

last trade · closes 2027-01-01

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24h volume$21.5K
Open interest$60.7K
Lifetime volume$3.0M

Quick answers

Where is "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 9¢ (+1011). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?" settle?
Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian…

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid15%9%2%Oct 30 00:04 UTCNov 05 22:55 UTC

170 archived bid/ask quotes for "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

21 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $4,815. Bought: No $37,941 · Yes $4,790.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

hard deadline December 31, 2026

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian…
Who decides
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
When
Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Heads up: Polymarket has 8 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 9¢ you pay $6.37 in fees on Kalshi

    0.57¢ per contract · 1111 contracts

  • On $100 at 9¢ you pay $4.55 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.41¢ per contract · 1111 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 270,036 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0x4167e22670f31e5f93d132f78108f3fae809bd15cadf78983eff096845ed1415 · ← All tracked markets

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