forgotmydinner
Yes · Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Sold $3 at 19.8¢
PolymarketOtherOpen
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
16.7¢+499
Open on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)Compare across venues
24h volume$11.8K
Open interest$50.7K
Lifetime volume$802.4K
Quick answers
- Where is "Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 16.7¢ (+499). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?" settle?
- Closes 2028-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
Odds history
190 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.
Smart money
What smart money means here
Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.
18 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $2,143. Bought: No $9,442 · Yes $4,331.
- forgotmydinner
Yes · Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Sold $1 at 20.3¢
Yes · Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
$95 at 20.7¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 20.7¢ pays $483No · Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
$32 at 79.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79.8¢ pays $125Yes · Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
$6 at 21.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 21.3¢ pays $469Yes · Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
$13 at 21.3¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 21.3¢ pays $469- forgotmydinner
Yes · Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Sold $4 at 20.6¢
- Tenebrus7
Yes · Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Sold $49 at 21.3¢
- SnapElectionAvoider$100 → $118.06
No · Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
$2,143 at 77.8¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 77.8¢ pays $128 - Bigggggggg
Yes · Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Sold $1 at 20.8¢
How this market settles
hard deadline December 31, 2027
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
- Who decides
- In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated…
- When
- Closes 2028-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 17¢ you pay $5.81 in fees on Kalshi
0.99¢ per contract · 588 contracts
On $100 at 17¢ you pay $4.15 in fees on Polymarket US
0.71¢ per contract · 588 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Why the board stays free
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Data: Polymarket id 0x3d555d528a9a5f94a733741d75a3f707731f5e42237006aed81e191d9dd43d1d · ← All tracked markets