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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

51¢−104

last trade · closes 2027-01-01

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24h volume$359.5K
Open interest$107.3K
Lifetime volume$1.4M

Quick answers

Where is "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 51¢ (−104). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?" settle?
Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid56%39%23%Oct 30 00:00 UTCNov 05 16:22 UTC

200 archived bid/ask quotes for "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

49 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $13,287. Bought: No $61,530 · Yes $45,475.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Who decides
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
When
Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 51¢ you pay $3.43 in fees on Kalshi

    1.75¢ per contract · 196 contracts

  • On $100 at 51¢ you pay $2.45 in fees on Polymarket US

    1.25¢ per contract · 196 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0x0fcfcfc35d71424c0693c717d2e3bc9b8992910835d124d80cd2f01498f1d3dc · ← All tracked markets

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